【Calcined Petroleum Coke】Diverging Demand: How Is the CPC Market Performing?

【Calcined Petroleum Coke】Diverging Demand: How Is the CPC Market Performing?

At present, the largest downstream sector for calcined petroleum coke (CPC) remains the prebaked anode segment, accounting for about 70% of total CPC consumption. The share of the emerging anode materials sector continues to show a slight upward trend, while the traditional recarburizer and graphite electrode sectors are expected to see a declining share. Due to differences in demand, CPC prices are also showing varying trends.

I. EAF Operating Rates Decline Month-on-Month, with Further Downward Expectations

Among 94 independent EAF steel mills nationwide, the average capacity utilization rate was 62.63%, up 1.41 percentage points month-on-month and 6.86 percentage points year-on-year. The average operating rate was 74.52%, up 1.45 percentage points month-on-month and 1.09 percentage points year-on-year.

Currently, most ferrous futures are fluctuating downward, with finished steel prices trending lower. Scrap steel prices remain relatively firm, while the price spreads between rebar and scrap, as well as plate and scrap, have narrowed. Steel mill profits are generally low.

II. Aluminum Carbon Sector Operating at High Levels; Steel Carbon Sector at Moderate Levels

At present, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum market remains high, maintaining above 95% in the first quarter. Although aluminum demand is expected to gradually increase, orders for commercial prebaked anode enterprises are already saturated, and operating rates show no significant fluctuation.

Going forward, as new projects are gradually put into operation and maintenance-related shutdowns resume production, CPC demand may increase slightly, though the increment is expected to be limited.

In the steel carbon sector, demand for recarburizers and graphite electrodes has not shown significant growth. The operating rate of graphite electrodes remains around 30%, while the recarburizer market has improved to above 45%. However, most of this increase is driven by growth in the anode materials sector, providing limited support to the CPC market.

III. Anode Materials Market Remains Stable, Operating Rate Around 74%

In the anode materials market, the operating rate before March was 71.93%, up 2.08 percentage points compared to February and up 11.31 percentage points year-on-year. Most anode producers are maintaining stable operations, downstream demand is steadily recovering, energy storage orders continue to increase, and the power battery market is expected to gradually recover.

Overall, from the perspective of downstream demand, the anode materials market is expected to remain stable in the near term. The aluminum carbon sector has limited room for further growth, while the steel carbon sector may see slight demand improvement. However, total end-user demand is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. It is expected that CPC market prices will continue to be constrained by cost factors in the near term.

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