Negative electrode material graphitization gap situation is severe, price is about to rise

Since 2021, the global new energy vehicle market has entered the fast lane of development, and the global output of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 5.8 million. From January to August, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 1.486 million, to get the professional graphite electrode products, with a year-on-year growth rate of 202.1% and a cumulative penetration rate of 11.5%. The global demand for power batteries has exploded, and the domestic production and sales of negative electrode electrodes are naturally rising. According to the latest monthly output data of sample enterprises, the cumulative output of domestic negative materials from January to August was 428,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 115%.

It can also be seen from the year-on-year increase of monthly negative electrode production from January to August 2021 that the negative electrode production has basically changed little in recent two months, mainly due to the lack of graphitization capacity.

Since this year, the graphitization of domestic negative electrode materials has been in a tense state, and the price has also been rising all the way. From the lowest point of 12,500 yuan/ton last year to the current mainstream transaction price of 19,000-22,000 yuan/ton, the price of some small and medium-sized manufacturers is as high as 22,000-25,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 60%. The direct reason for the sharp rise in graphitization price is the lack of supply.

Looking back at the graphitization market supply and demand in recent years, we can see that the new capacity of negative electrode graphitization in 2019 and 2020 is very small. However, the graphitization shortage has not kept pace with the significant increase in Q4 material production since 2020.

Although since the end of last year, large negative electrode plants and graphitization enterprises in production have planned to expand production, on the one hand, due to the long construction cycle, on the other hand, under the high pressure of national energy consumption control, the project approval is cumbersome and difficult. Up to now, the new production capacity of negative electrode graphitization in China is only about 100,000 tons.

●  In July, the graphitization enterprises in Wulanchabu, Inner Mongolia generally restricted electricity by about 30%, and there is no sign of improvement until September;

●In September, Yunnan power limit increased, and the graphitization capacity of some negative electrode graphitization was limited by 70%.

As a result, the current graphitization capacity that can be effectively used in the market is only about 700,000 tons, and it is inevitable that the graphitization OEM price will continue to rise to a new high. Moreover, the current problem is no longer the price. It is common for large manufacturers to purchase graphitization OEM again. In these two months, negative electrode graphitization manufacturers began to start with the graphitization capacity of graphite electrode and look for resources.

In conclusion, the graphitization of negative electrode is difficult at present, and it is expected to be more difficult around the end of the year. With the Winter Olympic Games approaching, Ulanqab region will probably face a significant reduction in production again, or more than the current reduction, which means that the negative electrode supply in Q4 this year and Q1 next year will face a great test. The price of negative materials will also probably rise, for more related information communicate with us.