Graphite electrode Market Analysis and forecast

After the national day, the market price of graphite electrode changed rapidly, and the market showed a push up atmosphere as a whole. Cost pressure superimposed tight supply, graphite electrode enterprises were reluctant to sell, and graphite electrode prices began to rebound upward. As of October 20, 2021, the average market price of mainstream graphite electrode in China was 21107 yuan/ton, up 4.05% over the same period last month. The influencing factors are as follows:

1. Rising raw material prices have boosted the cost of graphite electrode enterprises. Since September, the price of raw materials upstream of graphite electrode in China has continued to rise.

So far, the price of low sulfur petroleum coke in Fushun and Daqing has risen to 5000 yuan/ton, and the average market price of low sulfur petroleum coke is 4825 yuan/ton, up about 58% over the price at the beginning of the year; The price of domestic needle coke for graphite electrode has also increased significantly. The average market price of needle coke is about 9466 yuan/ton, about 62% higher than that at the beginning of the year. In addition, the resources of imported and domestic high-quality needle coke are tight, and the price of needle coke is still expected to rise strongly; The coal tar pitch market has always maintained a strong operation state. The price of coal tar pitch has increased by about 71% compared with the beginning of the year, and the cost pressure of graphite electrode is obvious. 

Cost of graphite electrode industry in China

2. Electricity and production are limited, and the supply side of graphite electrode is expected to continue to shrink

Since mid September, all provinces have gradually implemented the power restriction policy, and the production of graphite electrode enterprises has been limited. Superimposed with the environmental protection production restriction in autumn and winter and the environmental protection requirements of the Winter Olympic Games, it is expected that the production restriction of graphite electrode enterprises will continue until March 2022, and the supply of graphite electrode market may continue to shrink. According to the feedback of graphite electrode enterprises, the supply of ultra-high power small and medium specifications has been tight.

3. Exports increased, and the market demand for graphite electrode was stable in the fourth quarter

Export: on the one hand, affected by the final anti-dumping decision of the Eurasian Union, which will officially impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite electrodes from January 1, 2022, overseas enterprises hope to increase the stock up before the final decision date; On the other hand, as the fourth quarter approaches the Spring Festival, many overseas enterprises plan to prepare goods in advance.

Domestic market: in the fourth quarter, the production restriction pressure of steel plants downstream of graphite electrode is still large, and the commencement of steel plants is still restricted. However, the power restriction is relaxed in some areas, the commencement of some electric furnace steel plants rebounds slightly, and the demand for graphite electrode procurement may increase slightly. In addition, steel mills also pay more attention to the power and production restriction of graphite electrode enterprises, and the price of graphite electrode shows an upward trend, or stimulate steel mills to increase procurement.

Future forecast: the power restriction policies of all provinces are still being implemented. With the pressure of environmental protection and production restriction in autumn and winter, the supply side of graphite electrode market is expected to continue to shrink. Under the influence of production restriction pressure of steel mills, the demand for graphite electrode is dominated by rigid demand, and the export market has a stable preference, which is good for the demand side of graphite electrode market. If the production cost pressure of graphite electrode continues to increase, the price of graphite electrode is expected to rise steadily, contact us for more detailed news.