【Electric Arc Furnace Steel】Riding the Wave in October

Impacted by macroeconomic factors, Chinese domestic steel prices saw significant volatility before and after the National Day holiday, with sharp increases followed by quick declines. As of October 10, the average price of rebar in China stood at RMB 3,791, down RMB 51 from the pre-holiday peak.

Raw Material Side: During the National Day holiday, scrap steel prices also experienced a rise followed by a decline, with post-holiday supply volumes significantly increasing, leading to continued slight price drops. Following nearly two weeks of sharp price increases, electric arc furnace (EAF) steel mills have seen a noticeable improvement in profitability, boosting production enthusiasm. High power graphite electrodes have the characteristics of high bulk density, low power consumption, and high conductivity, and are mainly used in electric arc furnace steelmaking. As of October 10, the capacity utilization rate among 135 EAF steel mills in China reached 51.95%, up by 4.68% compared to the end of September, with daily EAF steel output at 325,100 tons, marking a seven-week consecutive rise.

As steel production gradually increased, the steel market has seen some stockpiling since the holiday, with certain traders more willing to sell. Meanwhile, downstream buyers remain cautious about purchasing at high prices. In the absence of continued positive macroeconomic signals, steel prices are expected to experience a slight decline in the short term. For EAF steel mills, current profits are around RMB 200 per ton, so short-term price adjustments are unlikely to disrupt production schedules. It is likely that EAF steel production will continue to see an increase in October.

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