【Steel】China and the U.S. Agree to Substantially Reduce Tariffs for 90 Days! Will Steel Prices Rise?

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【Steel】China and the U.S. Agree to Substantially Reduce Tariffs for 90 Days! Will Steel Prices Rise?
Just yesterday, a joint statement was released following the China-U.S. economic and trade talks in Geneva. What impact will this have on steel prices? Let’s take a look together!
Joint Statement of the China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks
The Government of the People's Republic of China ("China") and the Government of the United States of America ("United States"),
Recognizing the importance of bilateral economic and trade relations to both countries and the global economy;
Recognizing the importance of a sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial bilateral economic and trade relationship;
Believing that continued consultations will help address the concerns of both sides in the economic and trade sectors in view of recent discussions;
In the spirit of mutual openness, continued communication, cooperation, and mutual respect, both sides agree to continue promoting related work.
The two sides commit to taking the following measures by May 14, 2025:
The United States will:
(1) Amend the ad valorem tariffs imposed on Chinese goods (including goods from the Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions) as specified in Executive Order No. 14257 dated April 2, 2025. Among these, the 24% tariff will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while the remaining 10% tariff will remain in effect as per the Executive Order;
(2) Cancel the tariffs imposed under Executive Order No. 14259 dated April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 dated April 9, 2025.
China will:
(1) Amend the ad valorem tariffs imposed on U.S. goods as specified in Tax Commission Announcement No. 4 (2025). Among these, the 24% tariff will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while the remaining 10% tariff will remain in effect. The additional tariffs imposed under Tax Commission Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 (2025) will also be cancelled;
(2) Take necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. that have been in place since April 2, 2025.
Following the implementation of these measures, both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations. The Chinese representative is Vice Premier He Lifeng, and the U.S. representatives are Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer. Consultations may take place in China, the United States, or a third country agreed upon by both parties. If needed, the two sides may also conduct working-level discussions on related economic and trade issues.
Impact on Steel Prices:
From the statement, we can see that the U.S. has modified and cancelled certain tariff provisions. The previous 34% retaliatory tariff imposed on Chinese goods will be adjusted: 24% will be suspended for the initial 90 days, and the remaining 10% will remain in place according to the executive order. In addition, the tariffs imposed on April 8 and April 9—accounting for 91% of the added tariffs—will be cancelled.
With the implementation of China-U.S. tariff adjustment measures, expectations for steel exports have clearly risen in the market, especially in indirectly steel-consuming sectors such as machinery and auto parts, where export costs will decrease. In the short term, this may encourage steel mills to hold prices firm. At the same time, reduced export costs will further ease the domestic supply-demand imbalance in the steel market, supporting steel prices. Overall, steel prices are expected to rise tomorrow.
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