【Calcined Petroleum Coke】Q2: Prices Decline Passively, Sharp Supply–Demand Conflict, Q3 Likely "Stable as Priority"

Q2 2025 Market Overview

In Q2 2025, calcined petroleum coke prices declined passively, caught in a severe supply–demand imbalance. Low-sulfur and medium–high-sulfur grades suffered dual pressures from volatile feedstock and weak downstream demand, eroding market confidence. Except for a late-quarter rebound in low-sulfur grades, overall prices trended downward.
As of June 30:

1. Low-sulfur grade average was RMB 4,600/ton, down RMB 800 (–17.39%) from Q1

2. Mid-sulfur average was RMB 3,100/ton, down RMB 600 (–16.22%).

Low-sulfur Calcined Petroleum Coke

Q2 saw continued weak trading; major feedstock declines and sluggish downstream demand pushed average prices from RMB 5,400 to RMB 4,350/ton, rebounding to RMB 4,600/ton by late June. Total Q2 average was RMB 800/ton lower than Q1.

1.  Supply: sharp drop in operating rates; shutdowns increased; Q2 production ~121,500 tons, Q1 ~60,000 tons (March).

2.  Demand: graphite electrode sector weak; only minimal replenishment. Aluminumcarbon demand remained stable but profit margins shrank.

3.  Prices (as of June 30):

1) Feedstock from Jinxi/Jinzhou: RMB 4,450–4,700/ton

2) Fushun feedstock ex-factory: RMB 5,400–5,700/ton

3) Liaohe/Binzhou CNOOC feedstock: RMB 4,100–4,300/ton

Mid–High Sulfur Calcined Petroleum Coke

Market was dim; competition intense, prices dropped RMB 150–300/ton.

1. Supply: declined from Q1 due to voluntary reduction or delayed restarts; some new capacity added (~50,000 ton annual, adding ~3,500 ton/month of standard grade).

2. Demand: low electrolytic aluminum demand; carbon and anode material sectors under pressure; export tenders scarce.

3. Prices (as of June 30):

1) 3.0% S, no micro-elements: RMB 2,200–2,300/ton

2) 3.5% S, no micro-elements: RMB 2,050–2,150/ton

3) 3.0% S, V ≤600 ppm: RMB 2,600–2,700/ton

4) 3.0% S, V ≤500 ppm: RMB 2,700–2,900/ton

5) 3.0% S, V ≤400 ppm: RMB 3,000–3,100/ton

6) Export-high-spec: price by negotiation

Export:Q2 shipments were 92,300 t in April and 53,500 t in May. Exports dropped sharply; UAE shipments in May were zero.

Q3 Market Outlook

Feedstock Outlook

Petroleum coke prices expected to rise then fall, driven by restocking demand and high-cost imports. Domestic traders may delay selling, supporting prices early in the quarter. As restocking finishes and maintenance ends, prices may retreat. Expected price volatility: RMB 10–200/ton.
Price ranges:

1) Low-sulfur (~0.5% S): RMB 3,400–3,700/ton

2) Mid-sulfur (≤3.0% S): RMB 2,000–3,300/ton

3) High-sulfur (~5.0% S, standard grade): RMB 1,000–1,650/ton
Pellet-grade coke to stay weak; coal price recovery may trigger slight rebound.

Supply

New capacity by Q3:

1) Tianyi New Energy (Tianjin): 100,000 t by Aug 2025

2) Luyun New Materials (Shandong): 300,000 t by Sep 2025 (initially CPC sales, later anodes)

3) Lianhua New Materials: 50,000 t by Aug 2025

Demand

Electrolytic aluminum continues to lead; other downstream sectors expected weak, with low price acceptance.

Summary

In Q3, low-sulfur calcined petroleum coke prices will remain stable (minor ±RMB 100/ton fluctuation). Mid–high sulfur calcined petroleum coke prices also expected stable; some companies may see small declines due to inventory pressure.

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