After successive power rationing notices, the negative pole supply is tightening

1. The primary industry will reduce electricity consumption. The secondary and tertiary industries will be the main power consumption

The power consumption of the secondary industry and industrial added value maintain the same growth rate. Get the good performance graphite electrodes. Production restriction has a significant impact on the power consumption of high-energy consuming industries. The main support of industrial power consumption is the high-tech midstream manufacturing industry. With the tightening of the "double control" power and production restriction policies for high energy consuming industries, the power consumption of the secondary industry will fall after the festival.

The growth rate of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry continued to strengthen. Since 2017, China has vigorously developed new infrastructure with high power consumption such as data center and 5G infrastructure, and the rapid development of new energy vehicles has also increased the demand for charging services. Therefore, the growth rate of electricity consumption in China's tertiary industry has been maintained near 10% from 2017 to 2019, and the epidemic in 2020 has seriously destroyed the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry. In 2021, with the slowing down of the epidemic, the improvement of the penetration rate of 5G infrastructure and the continued sales of new energy vehicles, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry will be strongly supported, and the growth rate of electricity consumption after the festival is expected to remain stable.

• Low sulfur petroleum coke supply shortage negative cost continues to bear pressure

• The cost of negative electrode materials has been continuously reduced. Due to the rise of negative electrode raw materials, the graphitization processing cost and each process cost have increased by more than 40%. The negative electrode costs are mainly negative electrode raw materials and graphitization processing, accounting for 40% and 52% respectively. As the energy consumption double control policy continues to deepen, local governments have issued documents, it is expected that the negative cost will continue to bear pressure after the festival.

• Low sulfur petroleum coke: low sulfur coke continues to push up 200 yuan/ton.  with the downstream anode material purchase stock demand increase, and coking plant low sulfur coke inventory reduction, low sulfur coke market demand exceeds supply. Due to the impact of limited power policy upgrading in East China and Shandong, the demand of some downstream enterprises has weakened. At present, refineries are actively shipping and exporting, and the inventory of petroleum coke continues to remain low, is expected to continue to push up after the festival.

• At present, the mainstream price of domestic needle coke: raw coke 6500-7500 yuan/ton, calcined coke 9500-12000 yuan/ton; Import needle coke main price: raw coke $900-1300/ton, calcined coke $1200-1400/ton.

• Graphitization processing: energy consumption double control continues to increase, and graphitization processing continues to be tense. Graphitization is the most critical link in the production of negative electrode materials, accounting for 50% of the production cost. It belongs to high-energy consumption production. Recently, the "double control" of some provinces has continued to show red light (mainly in western China, where the graphitization capacity is generally located in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Mongolia with low electricity price). Since September 2020, the graphitization price has been rising continuously, and the average monthly price has increased by 1000 yuan since 2021. At present, the mainstream quotation of graphitization market is 23,000-25,000 yuan/ton.

• Flake graphite: affected by the national power restriction policy, leading to the reduction of production capacity of various graphite enterprises, the cost of electricity, labor, logistics and other costs rose sharply, and finally led to a significant increase in the cost of graphite products. Taking Luobei as an example, the daily output can be less than 1/3 of the original after power restriction, and the unit cost increases by more than 500 yuan.In order to ensure the survival of graphite enterprises and ensure that all users use good quality graphite, the price of genuine natural graphite is temporarily increased by 500 yuan/ton. 

2. After the frequency output power restriction policy in various regions, the supply of negative electrode enterprises is tightening

According to statistics: due to the active and continuous increase in energy consumption double control, successively issued documents and issued notices. At present, some negative material enterprises are located in regions where electricity is limited, and some high energy consumption capacity is limited to production. The production of negative material is limited by 40-50% in Inner Mongolia, followed by Ningxia, Jiangsu and other regions, and 20-30% in other regions. Qinghai province: Issued a warning of power rationing, the scope of power rationing continues to expand. Ningxia: high energy consuming enterprises stop and limit production for one month. Yunnan: Two rounds of power cuts have been carried out, and more will follow. Guangxi: industrial and commercial enterprises are required to use electricity in an orderly manner and take the initiative to shift peak and avoid peak. Sichuan: suspend non-essential production, lighting and office load. Henan: Some processing enterprises cut power for more than three weeks. Chongqing: some factories cut power supply and stopped production in early August. Inner Mongolia: strictly control the power rationing time of enterprises, and the price of electricity will not rise more than 10%.

• Hunan Electric Power issued an orange alert: On September 22, the coal stocks of thermal power plants and the water level of reservoirs fell sharply. Firstly, the coal stocks decreased significantly, Secondly, the thermal power units had large-scale faults and defects, thirdly, the hydropower capacity continued to decline.

• Power rationing will be implemented in some areas of Jiangsu: it is tentatively scheduled for 15 days, starting from 0:00 on September 15. The city has unified the power supply department to prepare for power outages. Notice to pull power: industrial pull off, living electricity retention, maintenance of electricity, security load. Unified maintenance for half a month, office air conditioning out of service, street lamp control by half.

• Power rationing was implemented in some areas of Shandong: on September 12, the power rationing measures were taken in Zibo factory from 16:00 to 20:00 every day, and on September 15, it was changed to 16:00 to 24:00. Today (September 18), the power rationing policy in Zibo production area was upgraded again. The power rationing time on September 18 was 7:30 a.m. to 24:00 a.m.

• Guangdong Power Grid Corporation issued a notice: in accordance with the orderly power consumption plan approved by the district government, it will implement the five-level orderly power consumption plan of "two days on and five days off" every week from September 16. On the peak shifting day, the security load shall be kept below 15% of the total load. The peak shifting time is from 7:00 to 23:00.

• Document issued by Yunnan Province: on September 11, Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Resolutely Making a Good Performance in The Work Related to Double Control of Energy Consumption, requiring the strengthening of production control in key industries, including ensuring that the average monthly output of green aluminum enterprises from September to December is not higher than the output of August.If the current policy is implemented and the electrolytic aluminum output of Yunnan province in August is 236,000 tons, then the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan province will be maintained at 2.78 million tons, and the total annual output will be 3.22 million tons.

• Document issued by Inner Mongolia: Report on Orderly Power Consumption Decomposition Index of Inner Mongolia Power Grid in August 2021 on August 31. It is pointed out that the power balance situation of Inner Mongolia power grid is still severe in 2021, and the power gap will continue until the end of the year. Moreover, it is recommended to limit the load with orderly voltage from August to December. By August 2021, Inner Mongolia's 417,000 tons of annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been reduced due to the influence of energy consumption double control and carbon emission reduction policies, and there is no sign of resumption of production.

• Document issued by Guizhou Province: on September 10, Guizhou Energy Bureau issued The Plan for Orderly Electricity Consumption in Guizhou In 2021. In order to ensure the operation of local power grid and the healthy development of economy and society, warnings were issued according to the scale of power gap in the province in terms of bonus, orange, yellow and blue. Unlike other provinces, the scheme issued by Guizhou Province is not a power and production restriction implemented due to dual control of energy consumption, but an early warning measure based on the possible shortage of power resources.

• Guangxi issued a document: the People's government of Guangxi Autonomous Region also issued documents on August 20. All power consumption industrial and commercial enterprises should make scientific and reasonable production plans in combination with their own production characteristics, formulate and strictly implement orderly power consumption schemes, take the initiative to avoid peak peak power consumption. Through peak shifting production and rotation, make full use of weekends and nights to arrange production, strive for peak shifting without reducing production, and minimize the impact of power shortage on enterprise production.

• Qinghai Electric Power issued a warning: issued early warning of power restriction, and the scope of power restriction continued to expand. On August 20, some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Qinghai Province received the power restriction early warning notice from the State Grid Xining, which mentioned that the power supply and demand of Xining Power Grid was unbalanced due to the low water inflow from the upper reaches of the Yellow River this year, the insufficient output of thermal power generating units and the shortage of outgoing power, reminding enterprises to make preparations for orderly power consumption in advance. At present, the specific power restriction time and power restriction scheme have not been notified, talk with us for more technical guidance.