Graphite electrode price increased by 5%: some manufacturers have few inventory, electric furnace steel plants have resumed production, export demand improved

Changes in graphite electrode Market after National Day

After the national day, the price of some orders in the graphite market increased by about 1000-1500 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. At present graphite electrode downstream steel procurement is still wait-and-see sentiment, market trading is still weak.   However, affected by the tightening of the supply of graphite electrode market and the high cost, graphite electrode enterprises actively push up the price of graphite electrode under the reluctance to sell, and the market price changes rapidly. The specific influencing factors are as follows:

• 1. Under the influence of power rationing, graphite electrode market supply is expected to decrease

  On the one hand, after about 2 months of consumption, graphite electrode market inventory reduced, and some graphite electrode enterprises said that they basically had no inventory;

  On the other hand, under the influence of tight power supply since mid September, the provinces have successively spread the news of power restriction, and the degree of power restriction has gradually increased. The production of graphite electrode market is limited, the supply is reduced.

  Up to now, most areas of power restrictions focus on 20%-50%, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong, Anhui, Henan areas of limited power impact is more serious, basically around 50%, of which Inner Mongolia and Henan areas of some enterprises in serious limited power impact can reach 70%-80%, some enterprises have shutdown phenomenon.

  According to the statistics of 48 leading graphite electrode enterprises in China, based on the output of graphite electrode in September, according to the proportion of limited electric influence in the graphite electrode market before the "National Day", it is estimated that the overall monthly output of graphite electrode market will decrease by 15,400 tons; According to the after "National Day" graphite electrode market limited electricity impact ratio calculation,  it is expected that the overall monthly output of the graphite electrode market decreased by 20,500 tons. It can be seen that the power limit of graphite electrode market is strengthened after the festival.

  In addition, it is understood that some enterprises in Hebei, Henan and other regions have received the notice of environmental protection and production restriction in autumn and winter, and part of the process of some graphite electrode enterprises are unable to start due to the influence of winter weather, and the limited scope and intensity of graphite electrode market will be further increased.

• 2. Graphite electrode market cost continues to increase, graphite electrode upstream raw material prices continue to rise

  After the national day, the prices of low sulfur petroleum coke, coal tar pitch and needle coke upstream of graphite electrode rose comprehensively, and due to the upward impact of coal tar and oil slurry prices, import needle coke and domestic needle coke prices continue to rise strongly expected, and the cost of graphite electrode continued to increase at a high level.

  Based on the current raw material price, theoretically, the comprehensive production cost of graphite electrode is about 19000 yuan/ton. Some graphite electrode companies said production losses.

  

  Under the influence of power limit, the process cost of graphite electrode market increases. On the one hand, under the influence of power limit, graphite electrode enterprises graphite chemical sequence limited more serious, especially Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other relatively low electricity prices are limited power influence; On the other hand, supported by the high profit of negative electrode graphitization, some graphite electrode graphitization enterprises have turned to negative electrode graphitization. The combination of two factors leads to the shortage of graphitization resources in the graphite electrode market and the rising price of graphitization. At present, the price of graphitization of some graphite electrodes has risen to 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and some have reached 5000 yuan/ton.

  In addition, some regional enterprises have received the notice of production restriction in the heating season. In addition to graphitization, baking and other processes are also limited. It is expected that part of the non-complete process graphite electrode enterprises cost increase.

• 3. Graphite electrode market demand is stable and improving

  The downstream steel plant of graphite electrode is mainly based on demand. Recently, the  downstream steel plants of graphite electrode have paid more attention to the power restriction of graphite electrode market, but the pressure of production and power restriction of steel plants still exists, the steel plants are not started enough, and there is still a wait-and-see mood for the purchase of graphite electrode.

  In terms of electric furnace steel, some regions have corrected the "one-size-fits-all" power and production restriction or "movement" carbon reduction. At present, some electric furnace steel plants have successively resumed production or staggered peak production, and the operating rate of electric furnace steel plants has rebounded slightly, which is good for the demand of electric furnace steel plants for graphite electrodes.

  Graphite electrode market exports are expected to increase. After the National Day, according to some graphite electrode enterprises, the overall export market is relatively stable, export inquiries have increased, but the actual transaction has not significantly increased, the demand for graphite electrode is relatively stable.

  However, it is reported that the freight of graphite electrode export ships has decreased recently, and the overstocked inventory in the early of some ports can be shipped. Due to the sharp rise in sea freight this year, some graphite electrode enterprises said that the freight accounts for about 20% of the export cost of graphite electrode, resulting in some graphite electrode enterprises switching to domestic sales or shipping to neighboring countries. Therefore, the decline in sea freight prices is good for the increase in the export of graphite electrode enterprises.

  In addition, the final anti-dumping decision of the Eurasian Union will officially impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite electrodes from January 1, 2022. Therefore, overseas enterprises may have certain stock in the fourth quarter, and the export of graphite electrodes may increase.

Future forecast: with the gradual expansion of the power rationing impact and the superposition of environmental protection and production restrictions in autumn and winter and the environmental requirements of the Winter Olympic Games, the production restrictions on the graphite electrode market may continue until March 2022. Under the expectation of continuous contraction of the supply side of the graphite electrode market, the price of graphite electrode is expected to continue to rise. To get more market news from us.