【Graphite Electrodes】 Market Outlook in the Second Half of 2024

【Graphite Electrodes】 Market Outlook in the Second Half of 2024

In 2024, the price of graphite electrodes in China has been fluctuating weakly, and it is expected to continue to operate steadily but weakly in the second half of the year.

1. Raw Material Costs

China's production of needle coke reached 325,900 tons from January to May 2024, a decrease of 24.03% compared to 2023. Currently, needle coke prices are stable. However, the actual demand for petroleum coke has not met expectations, and the overall outlook for petroleum coke is not optimistic.

2. Market Supply

Graphite electrode manufacturers are currently able to supply adequately. Some small and medium-sized enterprises produce according to sales, but most manufacturers have not reduced production due to high foreign demand and large export volumes. Additionally, the application of graphite electrodes in non-ferrous metals and yellow phosphorus smelting is increasing. Overall, the supply of graphite electrodes is expected to remain stable.

3. Market Demand

This year, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of domestic electric arc furnaces are lower than in previous years, and steel mills' overall procurement willingness is not strong, leading to weak short-term downstream demand.

4. Industry Policies

In recent years, the Chinese government has issued a series of regulations and policies to accelerate technological innovation among graphite electrode manufacturers, aiming to promote industrial integration and eliminate outdated capacities. Additionally, the increasing number of large-capacity ultra-high-power electric arc furnaces makes the development of large-diameter graphite electrodes a future trend. With the continuous improvement in the technical level and product competitiveness of China's graphite electrode industry, export volumes remain stable. On April 24th, Japan initiated an anti-dumping investigation on graphite electrodes imported from China, but since exports to Japan account for less than 4% of total exports, this will not significantly affect graphite electrode exports.

5. Market Sentiment

Given the current development of the domestic steel market, the production sentiment among graphite electrode manufacturers is pessimistic. Some industry insiders predict that demand for graphite electrodes may remain steady, with steel mills preferring to purchase through low-price bids. As of the end of June, the prices of raw materials for graphite electrodes had decreased, increasing manufacturers' profits. However, downstream demand has not been released. In summary, it is expected that graphite electrodes will continue to operate steadily but weakly in the second half of the year.

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