【Needle Coke】Prices Poised for a 500–1000 CNY/ton Increase — Who Will Benefit?

Petroleum coke price surge boosts needle coke market outlook.

Needle coke producers have raised their quotations by 800–1000 CNY/ton, and short-term market prices are expected to keep rising, with an anticipated increase of 500–1000 CNY/ton. Graphite electrode enterprises have been squeezed by the price of petroleum coke, resulting in increased cost pressure and a passive price increase of around 1000 yuan/ton during the month.

Market Overview: High-grade Prices Rising, Low-grade Prices Stable

After the Spring Festival, petroleum coke prices soared, briefly surpassing needle coke prices, creating a strong bullish sentiment in the market. Needle coke producers quickly adjusted their offers upward by 800–1000 CNY/ton, though most are still fulfilling previous orders, and actual transaction prices are yet to settle.

With continuous price hikes in the petroleum-based market, several coal-based needle coke producers have adopted a wait-and-see approach while assessing costs. As of February 18, three companies have resumed production. Current domestic needle coke prices range from 6000–6800 CNY/ton for green coke and 6500–8200 CNY/ton for calcined coke. Imported petroleum-based needle coke prices are 500–1200 USD/ton for green coke and 750–1250 USD/ton for calcined coke, while imported coal-based calcined coke ranges from 700–820 USD/ton.

Supply Analysis

Rising prices have driven increased production across the needle coke sector, with the average operating rate currently at around 35%. Major petroleum-based needle coke plants are running normally, with a Panjin-based plant set to resume pre-treatment operations in mid-February and expected to produce coke by the end of the month. A Dezhou-based plant has already restarted coking production. In the coal-based segment, rising prices have encouraged some producers to resume operations, and as of the latest report, three coal-based plants have resumed production and shipments.

Raw Material Dynamics

Following the Spring Festival, coal tar pitch prices rose significantly, with ongoing bullish sentiment suggesting further price increases. This has strengthened the upward push on coal-based needle coke prices. As of February 18, modified coal pitch prices in major production areas were quoted at 4200–4500 CNY/ton. Some coal-based needle coke producers have resumed procurement, and with current prices making production feasible, several plants are expected to restart operations. However, some companies with remaining inventory remain inactive in production.

Low- and medium-sulfur slurry oil prices have also seen strong upward momentum, driven by the petroleum coke and needle coke market rally. Increased demand from the marine fuel sector has further supported price hikes, with low-sulfur slurry oil now quoted at 4060–5030 CNY/ton.

Demand Outlook

Post-holiday, electric arc furnace (EAF) steel mills have been slow to ramp up production, while graphite electrode manufacturers face increasing cost pressures due to rising petroleum coke prices. This has led to passive price increases of around 1000 CNY/ton. Although many February orders were signed before the holiday, the extent of new order price hikes will depend on downstream purchasing willingness.

Anode material producers have maintained high production levels in Q1, with strong scheduling enthusiasm. The sharp rise in petroleum coke prices — at times exceeding needle coke prices — has driven increased needle coke inquiries. To maintain product quality, some companies have had to continue purchasing high-priced raw materials despite the cost surge.

Market Forecast

In the short term, needle coke prices are expected to continue rising. New orders are expected to be signed from late February, with specific price increases yet to be confirmed. On the supply side, the gradual resumption of coal-based needle coke production is expected to boost market supply. On the demand side, stable Q1 orders from anode material manufacturers and on-demand procurement from the graphite electrode sector provide continued support for needle coke prices.

Overall, needle coke price increases are likely to materialize gradually, with actual gains expected in the range of 500–1000 CNY/ton.

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