The rapid growth of the EV and energy storage industries is boosting demand for high-performance lithium batteries, driving the market for quality petroleum coke and synthetic graphite. The quality and particle size of calcined petroleum coke directly affect synthetic graphite performance, especially in anode production.

【Anode Materials】Peak Season Approaching – September Supply and Demand Forecast for the Anode Materials Market

With the arrival of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October," anode materials are entering the peak season. In September, battery production is expected to increase significantly, and the supply-demand atmosphere for anode materials will be boosted by downstream demand.

1. September production by major battery enterprises increases

Figure 1: Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries (GWh)

Source: Oilchem

In September, the production of power and energy storage batteries by major battery enterprises is expected to reach 141 GWh, up 12.8% month-on-month. September–October is the traditional consumption peak season in China. OEMs begin stocking up on complete vehicles, driving growth in demand for power cells. The energy storage market continues to show strong demand, with companies such as CATL and Hithium maintaining full capacity utilization and large order volumes. Consumer products will also enter the traditional peak season in September, driving demand across downstream sectors.

2. September anode materials output continues to grow

Figure 2: Monthly Output of Anode Materials in China (10,000 tons)

Source: Oilchem

In September, anode material output is expected to reach 2.3 million tons, up 2.9% month-on-month, with capacity utilization rising to 63.5%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points. Anode material producers are increasing production loads based on downstream orders, building up inventories of semi-finished goods and raw materials in preparation for the peak season, and laying the groundwork for year-end production surges. Leading anode enterprises are expected to operate near full capacity, while most second- and third-tier companies are running below 50% utilization. Operating rates vary across the industry, but overall remain at high levels.

3. September anode material prices remain stable

Table: Prices and Forecasts of Anode Materials

In September, prices of various anode materials are unlikely to rise and will mainly remain stable. The mid-level price of artificial graphite is stable at RMB 26,500/ton, natural graphite at RMB 26,000/ton, mesocarbon microbeads at RMB 62,500/ton, and graphitization processing fees at RMB 8,600/ton. Large contracts were signed earlier and are currently being executed. With phase-specific overcapacity in anode materials, the market remains under pressure from downstream cost reduction efforts, leaving little room for price increases. Even if demand improves, unless raw material prices fluctuate significantly, upward momentum for anode materials will remain limited, with upstream and downstream players mostly maintaining stable negotiations.

Summary and Outlook

Overall, demand for anode materials is gradually improving, stimulating producers to increase output. Market transactions are relatively active, and prices of anode materials are expected to remain largely stable.

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