【Graphitized Carburant】Raw Material Costs as Key Driver: Analysis of Upward Price Potential

According to research, graphitized carburant (C≥98.5%, S≤0.05%, particle size 1-5mm, ton bags):

• North China: tax-included price 3,650–3,750 RMB/ton;

• East China: tax-included price 3,700–3,800 RMB/ton.

Supply and Demand Analysis

1. Supply Side: Cost Support Suggests Upward Trend

Currently, the petroleum coke market is generally running weak but stable, specifically showing:

Main refinery petroleum coke average price is 3,049 RMB/ton, down 15 RMB/ton from the previous trading day;

Local refinery market prices fluctuate, overall shipment is moderate, average price 2,258 RMB/ton, down 17 RMB/ton from the previous trading day;

Port coke shipments are stable, and quotations for some U.S. high-sulfur coke with limited inventory have already risen.

On the downstream demand side, demand for aluminum-grade carbon and anode materials remains acceptable, and demand for silicon carbide persists, while graphite electrode demand is generally average.

Overall judgment: it is expected that the main refinery petroleum coke prices will remain broadly stable in the near term, while some high-cost-performance local refinery coke prices may see slight upward potential, providing certain upward momentum for graphitized carburant prices.

2. Demand Side: Generally Stable, Peak Season Demand Pending Verification

Based on data from 23 sample steel enterprises in Tangshan: as of September 1, blast furnace capacity utilization dropped to 74.62%, a significant decrease of 14.21% compared with August 27; although blast furnace operating rates declined, the demand side for graphitized carburant has not been significantly affected, overall performance remains stable.

Currently, traditional peak-season demand in the steel market has not yet been effectively verified, and the actual procurement demand for carburant from downstream steel enterprises has not shown significant fluctuations.

Overall, if raw material prices continue to rise, some small and medium-sized carburant enterprises may face production profit compression or even losses due to cost pressure, potentially choosing to reduce production or halt operations, leading to reduced market supply. Under the condition of relatively stable demand, the combination of "rising costs + supply contraction" will further provide momentum for upward movement in carburant prices.

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