【Anode Materials】High Cost Support Sustains the Market, Anode Market Remains Stable ...

The rapid growth of the EV and energy storage industries is boosting demand for high-performance lithium batteries, driving the market for quality petroleum coke and synthetic graphite. The quality and particle size of calcined petroleum coke directly affect synthetic graphite performance, especially in anode production.

【Anode Materials】High Cost Support Sustains the Market, Anode Market Remains Stable Ahead of the Holiday

Recently, after declining and then rebounding, low-sulfur petroleum coke prices have provided strong cost-side support for anode materials. Meanwhile, electricity tariffs have entered a peak period, and costs in the anode graphitization segment are expected to rise.

I.  Rising Coke Prices Put Pressure on Synthetic Graphite Costs

Data Source: Oilchem

As of January 30, the average price of low-sulfur petroleum coke reached RMB 4,382/ton, up RMB 56/ton month-on-month. Sinopec refineries maintained active production and sales, mainly executing previously signed contracts, with overall market trading remaining relatively stable. PetroChina refineries continued contract-based sales, with no apparent shipment pressure. Downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious, while refineries focused on inventory reduction, keeping mainstream market prices stable. Local refineries actively increased shipments ahead of the holiday.

Figure 1: Monthly Profit and Price Comparison of Synthetic Graphite Anodes

(Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Oilchem

In January, the production profit of mid-range synthetic graphite anodes was RMB 977/ton, down RMB 608/ton month-on-month, representing a decline of 38.37%, with a gross margin of 3.43%. During the month, raw material prices for mid-range synthetic graphite anodes increased, mainly driven by higher prices of low-sulfur petroleum coke and coating pitch. As production costs rose while anode material prices remained stable, profit margins for mid-range synthetic graphite anodes declined accordingly.

II. Supply Continued to Grow Steadily in January

Figure 2: Comparison of China's Anode Material Output and Capacity Utilization

(Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Oilchem

In January, the capacity utilization rate of anode materials reached 71.89%, up 0.9 percentage points month-on-month. Anode material output totaled 264,500 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous month, representing a 4.71% month-on-month rise. The main reasons include production based on confirmed sales orders, execution of previously signed contracts, and support from downstream export orders. In addition, demand for energy storage batteries continued to perform well.

III. Energy Storage Demand Remains Outstanding

Figure 3: Comparison of China's Mainstream Battery Output

(Unit: GWh)

Data Source: Oilchem

In February 2026, China's total planned lithium battery output is estimated at approximately 188–190 GWh. Energy storage battery cells remain the core growth driver, accounting for nearly 40% of total output. Leading enterprises, with orders already scheduled through the second quarter of 2026, continued to operate core production lines during the Spring Festival period. The month-on-month decline in February output reflects short-term seasonal fluctuations rather than a reversal in demand.

Overall Assessment

Overall, the supply side is expected to remain ample. On the demand side, following the resumption of work and production in March, demand is expected to return to an upward trajectory, with a high-prosperity cycle for the full year of 2026 remaining highly certain. Competition among anode material producers remains intense, limiting bargaining power, while battery cell manufacturers continue to exert strong price pressure to control costs. On the cost side, needle coke prices have recently shown firm support, reinforcing production cost pressures. As a result, anode material prices are expected to remain stable ahead of the Spring Festival.

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