【Anode Materials】Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Drives Costs Higher, Clear Expectations...

 The rapid growth of the EV and energy storage industries is boosting demand for high-performance lithium batteries, driving the market for quality petroleum coke and synthetic graphite. The quality and particle size of calcined petroleum coke directly affect synthetic graphite performance, especially in anode production.

【Anode Materials】Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Drives Costs Higher, Clear Expectations for Price Increases

I. Analysis of the Anode Raw Material Coke Market

On the cost side, the anode raw material coke market overall shows a supply-demand pattern characterized by "recovering demand, low inventories, and tight supply." Since the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the raw material coke market has shown a clear upward price trend. Among them, the average market price of oil-based needle coke (green coke) has increased by 5%; the average market price of low-sulfur petroleum coke has risen by 8%; the average market price of petroleum coke 2#A (Shandong region) has increased by more than 15%; and high-sulfur petroleum coke (Shandong) has surged by as much as 39%. In the short term, the momentum for price increases remains strong. Going forward, close attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts, raw material supply, and the pace of downstream demand recovery.

Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the production costs of anode raw material coke.
Since late February, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have escalated sharply, disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global crude oil shipping route, directly triggering a sharp surge in international oil prices.

As the core upstream raw material for petroleum coke and needle coke, the surge in crude oil prices is directly transmitted to the refining and petrochemical production chain, significantly increasing the production costs of petroleum coke and needle coke. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified global shipping risks. Freight rates have risen sharply, and the cost of war-risk insurance has increased significantly, further amplifying the cost pressure of raw material imports and logistics transportation, forming a strong rigid support for coke prices.

Recovering demand and restricted supply further consolidate the foundation for rising coke prices.
After the holiday, the market has gradually warmed up, with procurement demand for anode materials continuing to be released and purchasing frequency steadily increasing. However, under the background of high costs, a cost inversion has appeared in anode raw material coke, and production enthusiasm has declined significantly, making it difficult for supply to respond quickly to downstream demand.

II. Supply and Demand Structure of Anode Materials

From the supply and demand perspective, the anode material market will enter a phase of simultaneous recovery in both supply and demand, maintaining an overall tight supply-demand balance.

Demand side: With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the capacity utilization rate of downstream battery enterprises has gradually returned to normal levels, and procurement demand for anode materials continues to increase. Orders for anode material enterprises have steadily increased, and order delivery cycles have shortened. Among them, energy storage orders have performed particularly strongly, becoming an important support for demand growth.

Supply side: Anode material enterprises have simultaneously resumed full-load production. However, due to factors such as previous sufficient inventory depletion and tight supply of upstream petroleum coke and needle coke, the pace of supply growth cannot fully match the speed of demand recovery. The industry's tight supply-demand balance continues. Some anode material enterprises have adopted a "produce based on sales" strategy to cope with raw material supply pressure and demand changes.

III. Price Analysis

In summary, in March 2026, the artificial graphite anode material market is characterized by "strong cost-driven momentum and tight supply-demand balance." In the short term, cost pressure is prominent, and expectations for price increases are clear.

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