【Petroleum Coke】China's Petroleum Coke Price Spread Continues to Widen, ...

Calcined petroleum coke, with its high carbon content, low sulfur, and low impurities, plays a vital role in modern manufacturing, especially in the aluminum and steel industries.

【Petroleum Coke】China's Petroleum Coke Price Spread Continues to Widen, Structural Differentiation Intensifies

In the second quarter, refinery maintenance has become more concentrated. Coupled with insufficient supplementation of imported resources due to uncertainties from geopolitical conflicts, supply risks have increased. Overall, China's petroleum coke market shows a relatively tight supply pattern. By product type, the price spread between low-sulfur and medium-to-high-sulfur petroleum coke continues to widen, and structural differentiation is intensifying.

I. Prices Fluctuate at High Levels, Structural Differentiation Intensifies

Figure 1: China Petroleum Coke Price Index Trend (2024–2026)

Source: Oilchem

Figure 2: Price Spread Comparison of Different Petroleum Coke Grades in China (2025–2026) (RMB/ton)

Source: Oilchem

Since 2026, China's petroleum coke price index has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with overall prices moving upward amid volatility. On one hand, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven crude oil prices to fluctuate at high levels, with rising costs and supply risks supporting petroleum coke prices. On the other hand, downstream demand has also provided positive support.

Specifically by grade, as of April 22, the price spread between 2A and 3B reached RMB 687/ton, while the spread between 2A and 4A widened to RMB 2,310/ton. The price increases of low-, medium-, and high-sulfur petroleum coke have diverged, and structural differentiation has become increasingly evident.

The main reasons are as follows: low-sulfur coke is driven by demand from new energy lithium-ion battery anode materials, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, keeping prices at high levels. Medium-sulfur coke benefits from rigid demand in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with high operating rates of prebaked anodes supporting steady price increases. However, due to cost constraints and limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials, transaction prices tend to correct rationally after reaching high levels. High-sulfur coke supply remains relatively sufficient, and due to weak demand for fuel substitution, prices stay at relatively low levels, with some enterprises seeing slight declines in transaction prices and lacking upward momentum overall.

II. Significant Differentiation in Downstream Enterprise Profitability

Table: Monthly Average Profit Changes of Major Downstream Products of Petroleum Coke (Unit: RMB/ton)

Source: Oilchem

Petroleum coke is a key raw material for prebaked anode production. As petroleum coke costs rise, profit margins of prebaked anode enterprises are being compressed. Some companies have reduced costs by adjusting raw material structures and optimizing blending ratios.

Lithium-ion battery anode material enterprises are relatively less sensitive to low-sulfur coke prices and benefit from higher product value-added, maintaining relatively stable profitability. Their higher acceptance of high-priced low-sulfur coke has become an important factor supporting its price.

In the calcined petroleum coke market, downstream demand is mainly rigid, with relatively weak bargaining power. Calcined petroleum coke enterprises tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward market entry. The graphite electrode industry as a whole remains in a loss-making situation, with low operating rates and relatively weak market demand.

III. Regional Price Differences Are Also Expanding

Figure 3: Weekly Arbitrage Trend Between East China and Northwest China Petroleum Coke (2026) (RMB/ton)

Source: Oilchem

As of April 16, the average price of medium-sulfur coke in East China increased by RMB 8/ton week-on-week to RMB 3,536/ton, while prices in Northwest China remained unchanged at RMB 4,250/ton. With rising prices in East China and stable prices in the Northwest, combined with a decrease in transportation costs to RMB 390/ton, the arbitrage space for medium-sulfur petroleum coke transported from East China to Xinjiang increased by RMB 23.28/ton compared to the previous period, with an average of RMB 324.28/ton, up 7.7%.

Outlook

Looking ahead, China's petroleum coke market is expected to maintain its current pattern of high-level fluctuations and structural differentiation in the short term. In the second quarter, as refineries gradually enter maintenance periods, tightening supply will provide continued support for petroleum coke prices.

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