Will the spring of petroleum coke come in 2023?

After the 2023 Spring Festival, petroleum coke market continued its pre-Chinese New Year upward trend. Market trades well and the price operates well. Major refineries arrange production according to orders and contracts, with smooth transportation and stable prices. Local refining petroleum coke prices fluctuated, and price trend is mainly upward adjustment, with an range of 50-200 yuan/ton. Recently, refinery shipments have been stable and prices have risen. Refineries have concentrated on maintenance from March to April. The shipment volume shows differentiation. The sponge coke shipment volume is still slow, and there is no pressure on the shipment of pellet coke. As the local refining petroleum coke prices continue to rise, some refineries have shown signs of slowing shipments, and port inventory is still high. The short-term price of local refining petroleum coke is expected to rise in part, but the increase will gradually narrow. Main low sulphur coke prices may have a partial increase in the near future.

1. Delayed coking unit operation rate analysis

As of February 1, 2023, the delayed coking units weekly operating rate in China's refineries was 69.1%, 1.58 percentage points lower than that before the holiday, and 0.99 percentage points higher than that in 2022. During the Spring Festival, some refineries production was adjusted, The shutdown of some refineries in Northeast China affected the refineries' delayed coking units operation, and the overall production operating rate decreased.

During the Spring Festival, China's local refineries execute orders and contracts, promoting transactions through low prices. and the impact of the high price of imported coke on the domestic market was weakened. After the festival, the demand side performance was flat, with a small amount of procurement and replenishment of inventory. Flat support provided by the end market did not lead to shipments of petroleum coke, and the product oil market shipment volume was acceptable. Therefore, the refineries' delayed coking unit operation rate adjustment range was limited.

2. Inventory analysis

By February 1, 2023, China's main local ports' petroleum coke inventory reached a new high of 2.916 million tons in recent years, an increase of 171,000 tons or 6.23% compared with that before the festival, and an increase of 1.37 million tons or 99.95% compared with that after the 2022 Spring Festival.

Downstream carbon enterprises actively prepared goods before the Spring Festival, and basically implemented order and contract delivery during the Spring Festival, and the delivery speed of port petroleum coke slowed down. The imported coke price was still at a high level due to the influence of the external market, some imported sources prices upside down, and the manufacturers were reluctant to sell. In addition, during the Spring Festival, imported petroleum coke continued to arrive at ports for storage, some long-distance enterprises have not fully resumed the automobile logistics, and most traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, which was insufficient to support the market and the port inventory continues to increase.

To sum up, after the Spring Festival, China's local petroleum coke supply is still at a high level,   and petroleum coke storage in the ports has reached a new high, and the wait-and-see mentality dominates the market. In February, refinery coke prices are expected to remain stable and upward. To learn more about petroleum coke market news, welcome to contact us.