2021 H1 negative market inventory -- supply will continue to be nervous

In the first half of 2021, the domestic lithium negative material market grew significantly, with both volume and price rising. According to statistics, the output of 16 sample enterprises in China from January to June was 314,500 tons, up 143% year on year. Get the high quality graphite electrodes.

The increment of demand side is the main driving force for the sharp rise of negative output. According to statistics, the global sales volume of H1 new energy vehicles in 2021 was 2.445 million, with a year-on-year growth of 169%. Not only the power battery market performance burst, energy storage market performance is particularly bright, it is expected that the battery output in the energy storage market will reach 50GWH in the whole year.

In the first half of this year, there were 7 enterprises with an output of more than 15,000 tons of negative materials in China, including 4 enterprises with an output of more than 40,000 tons. Compared with last year, the industry pattern has not changed much, but the half-year output of about 5,000 tons of enterprises increased significantly, and the growth rate of the second echelon enterprises is higher than the average growth of the industry, particularly outstanding performance is Zhongke and Shangtai, which is also closely related to the customer structure. Both of them are mainly power battery customers.

In 2021, graphitization has to be mentioned when it comes to negative materials. According to the price data, the domestic graphitization OEM price has increased from about 13,000 yuan/ton at the low level of last year to about 18,000 yuan/ton at the end of June 2021, a cumulative increase of about 38%.

According to statistics, by the end of 2020, the domestic graphitization capacity of lithium battery negative electrode was 695,000 tons, the sequential growth is very limited.

In 2020, there was almost no increase in negative electrode graphitization in China, but the output of negative materials increased by 143% month on month in the first half of this year. The dislocation of supply and demand directly caused the extreme shortage of negative graphitization market. Combined with the superposition of energy consumption double control and environmental protection in Inner Mongolia this year, the production capacity of the main negative graphitization production areas in Inner Mongolia can only release about 85% at most, and is even reduced to about 70% in some months.

Graphitization projects have been launched since the end of last year, but the actual expansion progress is not as expected, especially for new projects, the overall progress is relatively slow. According to statistics, the graphitization capacity put into production and effectively operated in H1 in 2021 is only about 50,000 tons in China, most of which is the self-equipped graphitization capacity of Shangtai Technology. It is expected that the graphitization capacity will be extremely tight until the fourth quarter of 2022.

Raw material market, 2021H1 negative material raw material market still presents an upward trend as a whole. In particular, the overall price of needle coke increased by about 60%, of which the price of overseas imported needle coke increased more.

Overall, in the first half of this year, negative materials performed well, domestic and foreign demand resonance, but there was a significant shortage of supply. Tensions are expected to rise further throughout the second half of the year. The annual output of negative electrode will reach about 750,000 tons in 2021, and the output of negative material is expected to be about  2.45 million tons by 2025. Call us for more related informations.