【Petroleum Coke】Prices Rise Again! Positive Market Sentiment Drives Upward Trend

Market Overview

This week (Nov 8–Nov 14, 2024), petroleum coke prices were dominated by an overall upward trend. Low-sulfur, low-vanadium petroleum coke witnessed active sales amid a favorable market atmosphere, pushing prices higher. Demand for mid-to-high-sulfur coke remained stable, with downstream graphite electrode buyers primarily purchasing as needed. Refineries flexibly adjusted prices to match market rhythms, leading to mixed price changes.

As of November 14, 2024, the average market price for petroleum coke was RMB 1,799/ton, up RMB 15/ton or 0.84% from last week. In the Shandong region, local refinery prices averaged RMB 1,464/ton, an increase of RMB 54/ton or 3.84% week-on-week.

Key Highlights

· Sinopec's petroleum coke prices remained mostly stable, with some refineries raising prices by RMB 20–30/ton.

· PetroChina's refineries in Northeast China increased prices by RMB 50–90/ton, while prices in other regions largely held steady.

· CNOOC prices fluctuated during the week, with adjustments ranging from RMB 30–40/ton.

· Local refineries saw varied performance, with mid-to-low-sulfur, low-vanadium petroleum coke prices rising by RMB 10–130/ton. High-sulfur coke prices showed mixed movements within the same range.

Market Outlook

· Supply: One additional coking unit with a capacity of 2.5 million tons/year is expected to restart production next week. However, given mediocre profitability, some local refineries may plan to reduce production or shut down, limiting overall supply growth. Imports remain steady as carbon and anode material enterprises sustain active purchases, and port inventories are likely to decrease due to reduced arrivals.

· Demand:

o Aluminum carbon producers maintain just-in-time procurement, supporting the market.

o Anode material demand is gradually releasing, with production activity improving.

o Silicon carbide demand remains weak, with the dry season potentially reducing operating rates and production slightly, limiting high-sulfur coke purchases.

o Environmental policies dampen demand for high-sulfur fuel-grade coke.

o Graphite electrode manufacturers continue executing long-term contracts, procuring petroleum coke as needed.

Price Forecast

Next week, petroleum coke supply is expected to rise slightly, but carbon enterprises' just-in-time purchases will keep demand stable. Prices are likely to stabilize, with minor fluctuations of RMB 10–50/ton for certain grades.

Main Price Ranges

· Low-sulfur coke (S ≈ 0.5%): RMB 2,230–2,910/ton.

· Mid-sulfur coke (S ≈ 3.0%): RMB 1,400–2,200/ton ex-works.

· High-sulfur, high-vanadium coke (S ≈ 4.5%): RMB 1,000–1,250/ton ex-works.

· Mid-to-low-sulfur shot coke: remains in tight supply, with a slight upward price expectation, while high-sulfur shot coke prices are anticipated to stabilize.

(Source: Baiinfo)

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