【Anode Market】2026 Forecast: China's Anode Material Supply and Demand Remain Generally Balanced,...

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【Anode Market】2026 Forecast: China's Anode Material Supply and Demand Remain Generally Balanced, with Strong Growth in the Energy Storage Market

I. Significant Increase in Anode Material Output and Capacity Utilization in 2026

It is expected that in 2026, the average monthly output of anode materials will reach 270,000 tons, up 28.6% from 2025; the average monthly capacity utilization rate will be 71%, an increase of 7 percentage points compared with 2025.

China's monthly anode material output in 2026 is expected to be relatively low in the first quarter, increase in the second and third quarters, and decline slightly in the fourth quarter. Monthly production is projected to range between 230,000–310,000 tons, with total annual output estimated at around 3.26 million tons.

In the first quarter of 2026, demand from the power battery sector is expected to weaken due to the halving of the vehicle purchase tax, combined with the traditional off-season caused by the Spring Festival, resulting in relatively low monthly production levels at anode material producers. In the second and third quarters, anode demand will gradually recover, with the third quarter being the traditional peak season. Demand from both power batteries and energy storage batteries will continue to drive the anode market, leading to a significant increase in anode material output. Overall, production in the second half of the year will be higher than in the first half.

II. Energy Storage Will Be the Fastest-Growing Downstream Market in 2026

Compared with 2025, total consumption in 2026 is expected to increase by 21% to 3.23 million tons. The growth rate of energy storage batteries will exceed that of power batteries, with energy storage growing by 33% and power batteries by 27%.

In 2026, downstream demand for anode materials is expected to maintain rapid growth, mainly driven by energy storage and power batteries. Power battery consumption is expected to increase by 390,000 tons, supported by the continued rise in new energy vehicle penetration. China's power battery industry has achieved notable progress in market scale, technological innovation, and supporting systems, becoming an important force driving the green and low-carbon transformation and sustainable development of the automotive industry.

Energy storage battery consumption is expected to increase by 170,000 tons. The Special Action Plan for the Large-Scale Development of New Energy Storage (2025–2027) has been officially released, setting a target of 180 GW of installed capacity by 2027 and driving approximately RMB 250 billion in investment, marking the beginning of a period of policy dividend release for the industry.

Consumer battery anode consumption is expected to increase by 40,000 tons. The rapid development of the low-altitude economy (such as drones and aerial vehicles) has created new application scenarios for consumer batteries, while government support for new energy and smart terminals continues to accelerate the expansion of the consumer battery market.

Total downstream consumption is expected to increase by 570,000 tons in 2026, representing 21 percentage points of growth compared with 2025.

III. China's Anode Material Supply and Demand Are Expected to Be Generally Balanced in 2026

In 2026, China's total anode material output is expected to reach 3.26 million tons, and together with approximately 15,000 tons of imports, total supply will amount to 3.275 million tons. On the demand side, consumption from the major sectors of power batteries, energy storage, and consumer batteries is expected to reach 3.23 million tons. Overall, the annual supply–demand balance is expected to show a surplus of about 45,000 tons, indicating a generally supply-side-loose market structure.

From the perspective of monthly supply–demand balance, the anode material market in 2026 is expected to be dominated by inventory accumulation, with more stock-building months than destocking months. Specifically, during the peak consumption season from September to November, demand will exceed supply, while in most other months the market will remain in a stock-building state.

Looking at the cumulative annual supply–demand balance, January to February are the seasonal low-consumption period, during which the supply–demand gap widens and inventories rise. From March to August, as demand gradually recovers, the supply–demand gap narrows while supply still exceeds demand, maintaining a certain level of inventory surplus. When the third-quarter peak season arrives, demand will temporarily exceed supply and the supply–demand balance will reverse. Overall, the fundamentals of China's anode material market in 2026 are expected to remain relatively loose.

It should be noted that the above monthly supply–demand balance estimates for China's anode material market in 2026 are based on comprehensive calculations, primarily derived from domestic anode material and downstream capacity expansion plans, historical monthly production and demand fluctuations, and assessments incorporating import and export data.

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