【Petroleum Coke】Prices Rose Across the Board in March, Further Upside Expected in April

Calcined petroleum coke, with its high carbon content, low sulfur, and low impurities, plays a vital role in modern manufacturing, especially in the aluminum and steel industries.

【Petroleum Coke】Prices Rose Across the Board in March, Further Upside Expected in April

Petroleum Coke Market Analysis

1. Market Analysis:

This month, China's petroleum coke market showed a broad-based upward trend, with active trading sentiment and a significant upward shift in the price center. Strong cost support: crude oil prices surged significantly in March, providing a solid foundation for petroleum coke prices. Meanwhile, although the cost of delayed coking units at refineries increased, the overall revenue growth of products was even greater, leading to a sharp month-on-month increase in production profits and further reinforcing the upward price trend.

Tightening supply expectations: the supply side showed a dual contraction both domestically and internationally. Domestically, 7 delayed coking units underwent shutdown maintenance during the month, combined with some refineries adjusting their processing loads, resulting in a month-on-month decline in capacity utilization. Market concerns over reduced future supply have intensified. On the import side, affected by geopolitical conflicts, transportation difficulties increased, and imports in March are expected to decline significantly, which has to some extent eased port inventory pressure. As of the end of March, China's total petroleum coke inventory at ports stood at 4.166 million tons.

Demand recovery: the operating rate of the main downstream prebaked anode market increased, and the operating load of terminal electrolytic aluminum enterprises remained at a high level, boosting rigid demand for raw materials. The anode material market maintained sufficient orders, with a significant increase in operating rates, continuously releasing procurement demand for petroleum coke. In addition, with the easing of environmental protection policies, traditional downstream sectors such as graphite electrodes and recarburizers have gradually resumed production, jointly forming a solid consumption base.

2. Outlook:

Supply is expected to continue tightening. In April, China plans maintenance for delayed coking units across 4 refineries, involving a total processing capacity of 6.7 million tons per year. Combined with the fact that many refineries will maintain their previous maintenance status, domestic petroleum coke production is expected to decline further in April. On the import side, transportation bottlenecks caused by geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to be fully resolved in the short term. The simultaneous reduction in both domestic and imported resources will further tighten spot supply in the market.

On the demand side, the operating rate of terminal electrolytic aluminum enterprises is expected to continue increasing, while the prebaked anode market will maintain steady growth, with significant room for price increases, supporting the upward trend of petroleum coke prices. Anode material manufacturers have sufficient orders, and a new round of procurement plans is gradually being launched, maintaining strong demand for low- and medium-sulfur petroleum coke.

In summary, China's petroleum coke market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile upward trend, with further upside potential in prices. Close attention should be paid to refinery maintenance and restart progress, as well as port inventory levels.

3. Monthly Petroleum Coke Price Comparison

Unit: RMB/ton

4. Monthly Calcined Petroleum Coke Price Comparison

Unit: RMB/ton

5. Chinese Domestic Unit Operating Status

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