Can the price of graphite electrode rise in the 3rd quarter?

Since July, the pressure on Chinese graphite electrode enterprises has increased significantly. The bidding price gap of steel plants is large, and the market quotations are chaotic.

From the downstream perspective: Since June, China's steel price has fallen by 600-700 yuan/ton, and steel raw materials' purchase price has been significantly depressed. Although scrap steel prices have also fallen sharply recently, and some EAF (electric arc furnace) steel plants' surface profits have even shown surpluses, many EAF steel plants are more cautious about resuming production under the condition of weak sales, and the overstocked inventory is equivalent to a loss. According to the current epidemic and financial situation, the demand of the steel market is expected to gradually recover after mid August, and steel price will continue to be weak in the short term.

From the upstream perspective: With the continuous popularity of the anode material market, in recent, the needle coke price remains strong, and petroleum coke price continues to rise steadily. In terms of current raw material costs, many graphite electrode manufacturers are on the verge of loss. Coupled with the influence of orderly power consumption schemes in some regions, part of manufacturers have begun to appropriately restrict production and clarified that they will not sell below cost price. From the 3^rd quarter overall situation, the graphite electrode resources supply in China is expected to decline from July to August to stabilize the market.

After September, domestic steel demand will rebound, new EAF capacity will be put into production, driving the graphite electrode mark; The export market will also rebound (Recently, the international scrap price has already rebounded). Combined with the support of raw material costs, graphite electrode prices are expected to resume the upward trend in September. Contact us and pay attention to carbon market daily report.