The demand for petroleum coke under the dual control policy in Yunnan may be reduced Ⅱ

At present, the total production capacity of silicon metal in China is about 5 million tons/year, of which the capacity of silicon metal in Yunnan is about 1.1 million tons/year, accounting for 22% of the total capacity in China, for the information of high quality calcined petroleum coke. 

According to the requirements of the double control notice, the average monthly output of silicon metal enterprises from September to December shall not be higher than 10% of the output in August (i.e. reduce the output by 90%). 

In August, the total output of silicon metal in Yunnan was about 65,000 tons. After the implementation of the policy, the total output of silicon metal in Yunnan is expected to drop to 26,000 tons from September to December, and the annual output of Yunnan will be less than 280,000 tons. 

Throughout the year, the consumption of petroleum coke by the silicon metal industry in Yunnan will be reduced by about 200,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45%. From September to December, the consumption of petroleum coke by the silicon metal industry in Yunnan will be reduced by about 100,000 tons, a year-on-year reduction of 85%.

Under the background of carbon neutralization, the supply and demand of high energy consuming industry is expected to be tight for a long time. As a double high industry, the future expansion and production capacity of electrolytic aluminum and silicon metal will be restricted to some extent. Even the green aluminum industry will be limited in the dry season with severe energy consumption and lack of hydropower resources. Although the photovoltaic industry complies with the future national energy consumption policy, the capacity growth of upstream silicon metal is seriously limited, which will aggravate the price rise of silicon metal to some extent. At the same time, it also increases the uncertainty of the amount of petroleum coke in the field of electrolytic aluminum and silicon metal in the future, more related news communicate with us.