【Petroleum Coke】Market Price and Future Forecast for January 2024

Market Overview:

In the mid to late January of 2024, the petroleum coke market saw differentiated shipments, with fluctuating prices for refinery petroleum coke. The prices of low-sulfur petroleum coke from major refineries in the northeast continued to rise, while some low-sulfur coke prices under China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) began to decline. Prices for medium to high-sulfur petroleum coke remained stable in transition. Approaching the Spring Festival, stocking activities from downstream enterprises at a distance gradually concluded, leading to reduced market procurement enthusiasm. Consequently, prices for petroleum coke from local refineries at higher levels began to fall, while prices for lower-level petroleum coke experienced a slight rebound. As of January 25, 2024, the average market price for petroleum coke was 1857 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1 RMB/ton compared to the previous week, representing a decline of 0.05%, and the specifications of graphitized petroleum coke (GPC) products for reference.

Currently, China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) maintains stable coke prices in transition, with price fluctuations of 60-150 RMB/ton for some refinery cokes under China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec). Some refinery coke prices under China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have been reduced by 100 RMB/ton. The overall shipment of locally refined petroleum coke is moderate, with some high-priced petroleum coke prices starting to decline, ranging from 10 to 450 RMB/ton.

Future Forecast:

Supply Perspective: It is understood that coking units are intermittently operational at the end of January, but apart from shutdowns for maintenance, most coking units are operating at full capacity. The domestic petroleum coke market supply remains relatively ample. Regarding imported coke, recent trading companies have actively shipped, and it is expected that the sponge coke imports will continue to be fast-paced, with stable market shipments for shot coke.

Demand Perspective: The stocking and replenishment of downstream long-distance carbon enterprises have basically ended by the end of January. Overall, there is a just-in-time procurement attitude towards raw materials. Approaching the Spring Festival, the intentions to deplete inventories by automobile manufacturers and downstream battery factories are becoming stronger, resulting in a decline in purchasing enthusiasm. Simultaneously, energy storage enterprises and consumer electronics companies show less-than-expected demand for negative electrode materials, indicating that the petroleum coke market will mainly adopt on-demand procurement for negative electrode materials. The market for graphite electrodes has fewer new orders, and the market performance is average. The demand for high-sulfur shot coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists.

Overall Outlook: With the basic completion of stocking and replenishment by downstream long-distance enterprises, and as the next week is the week before the Spring Festival, it predicts that some refineries will begin to sign orders during the Spring Festival, which will negatively impact petroleum coke prices. It expects that the main refinery petroleum coke prices will remain stable next week, while prices for locally refined petroleum coke have the potential to continue falling, with a range of approximately 20-100 RMB/ton. The main price ranges for petroleum coke are as follows: low-sulfur coke (around 0.5% sulfur) at 2400-3290 RMB/ton, medium-sulfur coke (within 3.0% sulfur) at 1600-2100 RMB/ton, and high-sulfur coke (around 6.0% sulfur, general cargo) at 1030-1200 RMB/ton. The price of shot coke is expected to remain stable in transition. For more analysis of the petroleum coke market, feel free to communicate with us for details.