【Petroleum coke】Price is expected to rise next week! Relatively scarce low-sulfur and low-vanadium petroleum coke

Market Overview

This week (2024.9.13 -2024.9.19), the shipment of petroleum coke market still showed differentiation, with low-sulfur petroleum coke trading at a reasonable price in the main refineries, and medium- and high-sulfur petroleum coke shipped steadily, with some coke prices slightly rising; The market for locally produced petroleum coke is generally sluggish, and the prices of some high-sulfur general petroleum coke continue to decline.

This week, the supply of petroleum coke market is still abundant, while the demand for downstream graphite electrodes and anode materials is weak. The demand for carbon for aluminum is still acceptable, but it has limited support for the petroleum coke market. Most refineries prioritize volume, and some adjust the price of coke flexibly based on shipment conditions.

As of September 19, 2024, the average market price of petroleum coke was 1,693 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 0.59%; The average market price of local refining in Shandong was 1,365 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 2.08%.

This week, the price of petroleum coke at some refineries under Sinopec increased by 20 yuan/ton; The price of refineries under PetroChina Coke has been reduced by 30-240 yuan/ton; The price of refinery under CNOOC increased by 10-60 yuan/ton this week; The market for locally produced petroleum coke is experiencing divergent shipments, with the price of medium and low sulfur petroleum coke rising by 50 yuan/ton, while the price of high sulfur general petroleum coke has decreased by 20-180 yuan/ton.

Future forecast

Supply side: It is expected that there will be three sets of coking plants scheduled to resume production next week, with an estimated increase in daily production of around 2,400 tons. There are currently no plans for refinery coking plants to suspend production for maintenance. It predicts that the supply of domestic petroleum coke will further increase next week; In terms of imported coke, the expected number of imported ships arriving at the port is still relatively small, and the port's shipment speed is stable. It predicts that the port's petroleum coke inventory will continue to decline next week.

Demand side: The downstream carbon market for aluminum is operating smoothly, with a steady demand for petroleum coke; The market for negative electrode materials, graphite electrodes, silicon metal, glass, and silicon carbide continues to be weak, with a rigid demand for raw material petroleum coke and a general support for the price of petroleum coke.

Overall, the supply of domestic petroleum coke is expected to continue to increase next week, while market supply remains differentiated. High-sulfur general goods are abundant, while medium-low sulfur and low vanadium petroleum coke are relatively scarce. The downstream market continues to demand for purchases, so it predicts that the market price of low-sulfur petroleum coke will rise steadily next week,while some medium-high sulfur petroleum coke prices still have a slight downward risk, with an overall fluctuation range of about 10-100 yuan/ton.

The main price range of petroleum coke is low-sulfur coke (sulfur content of about 0.5%) priced at 2200-2470 yuan/ton, medium-sulfur coke (sulfur content of less than 3.0%) priced at 1300-1700 yuan/ton, and high-sulfur coke (about 5.0% regular goods) priced at 820-1000 yuan/ton. The price of shot coke is expected to transition smoothly.

(Source: Baiinfo) 

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