【Steel Price Trends】Post-Spring Festival Outlook: Will 2025 Mark a "Strong Start" for the Steel Market?

The steel market in 2024 experienced fluctuations, with prices showing a complex and volatile pattern throughout the year. Market demand recovery fell short of expectations, leading to sustained downward pressure on prices. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel prices have seen a slight rebound. So, what will happen to steel prices after the holiday? Below, we summarize the price trends of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and hot-rolled strip steel for the first 5 and 10 trading days after the Spring Festival in major cities from 2020 to 2024. Graphite electrodes specifically used in the electric arc furnace steelmaking process, especially in short-process steelmaking, where scrap steel is melted by high-temperature electric arcs.

Rebar

Rebar (HRB400E Φ20mm) Average Price

As seen in Chart 1, the rebar price in the last trading day before the Spring Festival in the past 5 years reached its lowest point in 2025, at 3,474 yuan/ton. However, prior to the 2025 Spring Festival holiday, the black metal sector collectively turned positive, signaling an upward trend. Over the past 5 years, rebar prices have generally risen in the first 5 and 10 trading days after the Spring Festival. It is expected that rebar prices will continue to rise after the holiday.

Hot-Rolled Coils

Hot-Rolled Coils (4.75mm) Average Price

As shown in Chart 2, the price of hot-rolled coils on the last trading day before the Spring Festival in 2025 was also at its lowest in the past 5 years, at 3,483 yuan/ton. In contrast, the highest price in the past 5 years occurred in 2022 at 4,914 yuan/ton, a difference of 1,431 yuan/ton compared to 2025. With the end of the holiday and the resumption of operations by companies, more iron will likely flow towards plate materials, leading to stable to slightly rising prices for hot-rolled coils post-holiday.

Hot-Rolled Strip Steel

Hot-Rolled Strip Steel (685*3.5) Average Price

According to Chart 3, the price of hot-rolled strip steel on the last trading day before the Spring Festival in 2025 was at its lowest in the past 5 years, at 3,405 yuan/ton. The highest price in the past 5 years occurred in 2022 at 4,924 yuan/ton. Prices in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 were all above 4,000 yuan/ton. It is anticipated that hot-rolled strip steel prices will experience a stable to upward trend after the holiday.

Overall, the steel market post-Spring Festival has shown more upward trends than declines in the past 5 years. Due to the positive macro sentiment before the 2025 Spring Festival and the balanced steel market fundamentals, steel prices saw a slight rebound before the holiday. The black metal sector is more likely to rise than fall, and after the holiday, the market may experience a "strong start."

Looking ahead, the core trading logic for the steel market in February revolves around fundamentals. The impact of volatility will mainly come from policy and sentiment. Based on current fundamental data, the post-Spring Festival steel market should perform better than previous years, as steel mills have demonstrated enhanced self-discipline. This is expected to strengthen market confidence and lead to a rare "strong start." With the end of the Spring Festival and increased production resumption, steel demand is expected to rise, supporting a stable to upward trend in steel prices.

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