【GE】Iran-Israel Conflict Poses Triple Challenges to China's Graphite Electrode Exports

【Graphite Electrode】Warning! Ongoing Iran-Israel Conflict Poses Triple Challenges to China's Graphite Electrode Exports

According to customs statistics, in 2024, China exported a total of 24,300 tons of graphite electrodes to Iran, accounting for 7.18% of China's total graphite electrode exports for the year, ranking third among all countries/regions.
From January to April 2025, China exported 10,400 tons of graphite electrodes to Iran, accounting for 8.52% of the total graphite electrode exports in that period, ranking second by export destination. For the past two years, Iran has consistently ranked among the top three destinations for China's graphite electrode exports.

Statistics of China's exports of graphite electrodes to Iran in 2024-2025

Preliminary customs data shows that in 2024, China exported 900 tons of graphite electrodes to Israel, accounting for 0.28% of total annual graphite electrode exports. From January to April 2025, exports to Israel totaled 250 tons, accounting for 0.21% of the total exports in the same period. China's graphite electrode exports to Israel have remained relatively low over the past two years.

Statistics on China's exports of graphite electrodes to Israel in 2024-2025

Below is a comparison of export volumes and values (in USD) of graphite electrodes exported to Iran and Israel:

The ongoing escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, accompanied by multiple clashes and a widening scope of confrontation, has further highlighted the region's geopolitical sensitivity. Trade between China and Iran is expected to be affected to some extent.

First, order risks: As the conflict escalates, the risk of force majeure affecting China's graphite electrode export orders to Iran rises. The intensifying military conflict increases trade risks for steel-related products. As graphite electrodes are essential consumables for steelmaking, their export to sensitive regions faces uncertainties, including potential export/import controls and sanctions. At the same time, domestic graphite electrode suppliers may adopt a risk-averse stance.

Second, logistics costs: The worsening Iran-Israel conflict negatively affects Middle Eastern shipping routes. During this period, regional shipping capacity is expected to decline. Iran has also indicated a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East route occupies a significant proportion of China's Euro-Asian export shipping lanes. Disruptions to this route may lead to trade delays or detours, increasing the basic cost of graphite electrode exports.

Third, indirect impacts: The conflict affects local dominant industries—such as oil, natural gas, and minerals—which in turn could influence upstream and downstream products related to graphite electrodes in varying ways. These combined factors may hinder the overall production and sales of graphite electrodes.

Market Outlook: The Iran-Israel conflict is expected to have a bearish impact on China's overall graphite electrode exports. From both a cost and risk perspective, Chinese suppliers are losing some of their previous pricing advantages, while facing higher additional risks. As a result, the overall willingness to export may decline. However, affected regional prices may rise, and some enterprises may still take the risk to continue exports.

The continued escalation of the conflict will not only impact exports to the directly affected regions but also affect shipments to other countries that rely on Middle Eastern routes for logistics. Therefore, the future pattern of China's graphite electrode exports may undergo slight adjustments.

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