【Calcined Petroleum Coke】Price Market Analysis

【Calcined Petroleum Coke】Price Market Analysis

Calcined Petroleum Coke Price Analysis

According to market data from April 9–11, prices of calcined petroleum coke across all regions in China remained fully stable, with no fluctuations. The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, and transactions are mainly driven by rigid demand.

I. Regional Price Status (April 11)

Prices of the five monitored regional categories remained unchanged compared to the previous day. Details are as follows:

1. Liaoning (S ≤ 0.5%): RMB 6,350/ton. With the lowest sulfur content, prices remain at a high level. Regional supply is relatively tight, and downstream rigid demand supports price stability.

2. Shandong (S ≤ 3%, standard grade): RMB 3,300/ton. Among the monitored categories, this is a relatively high-priced standard grade. Regional production capacity is concentrated, inventories are within a reasonable range, and demand is mainly for restocking.

3. Shandong (S ≤ 3%, V 350): RMB 4,400/ton. A premium of RMB 1,100/ton compared to standard grade. The vanadium specification meets specific downstream requirements, with relatively balanced supply and demand, keeping prices stable.

4. Jiangsu (S ≤ 3.0%, V 450): RMB 4,400/ton. The same price level as the Shandong product with similar specifications. Benefiting from port advantages, the region has sufficient imported resource supplementation, resulting in stable prices.

5. Xinjiang (S ≤ 4.0%): RMB 3,000/ton. With the highest sulfur content and lowest price, the region has high self-sufficiency in resources and low transportation costs, keeping prices at a long-term low and stable level.

II. Core Market Features

1. Prices remain flat, stabilizing at high levels:

All regional and specification-based calcined petroleum coke prices showed no fluctuations, maintaining the levels seen on April 9. According to weekly industry data, the average price this week stands at RMB 3,980/ton, remaining in a relatively high range. Upstream petroleum coke costs continue to provide support, while downstream demand has not shown significant growth. Under the supply-demand game, prices remain stable with a wait-and-see sentiment.

2. Strong cost support, limited downside risk:

Upstream low-sulfur green coke prices are fluctuating at high levels, while medium- and high-sulfur green coke prices continue to rise. The rigidity of raw material costs forms a solid bottom support for calcined petroleum coke prices. Meanwhile, the coking coal market shows structural tightness in April, with shortages of high-quality coking coal further locking in production costs and strengthening producers’ willingness to hold prices firm.

3. Rigid demand dominates, lacking upward momentum:

Downstream demand shows structural differentiation. The anode material (battery) sector mainly purchases on a just-in-time basis and has limited acceptance of high prices, with no centralized stockpiling plans. Graphite electrode demand is recovering moderately, offering limited support to low-sulfur calcined coke. The prebaked anode sector maintains stable demand, but high operating rates do not generate additional incremental demand. Overall, demand lacks explosive growth and is insufficient to drive prices upward.

4. Stable regional price spreads, smooth resource circulation:

Regional price differences are well aligned with sulfur content, vanadium specifications, and resource endowments, with no abnormal fluctuations. Liaoning leads with scarce low-sulfur, high-spec resources and higher prices, while Xinjiang maintains lower prices due to abundant medium- and high-sulfur resources. Shandong and Jiangsu, supported by industrial clusters, remain in the mid-range. Inter-regional resource circulation is smooth, with no signs of shortages or inventory buildup.

III. Market Outlook

1. Short-term (1–2 weeks): Stable operation

With cost support from raw materials remaining firm and downstream procurement maintaining a rigid demand pattern, coupled with relatively high steel mill inventories and cautious restocking sentiment, calcined petroleum coke prices are expected to remain fully stable across all regions and specifications, with transactions dominated by wait-and-see behavior.

2. Medium-term (1 month): Fluctuating with a stronger bias

If downstream demand from anode materials and prebaked anodes recovers as expected, hot metal production continues to increase, and steel mill inventories gradually decline, combined with intensifying shortages of low-sulfur green coke, calcined petroleum coke prices may see slight upward movement. However, gains are expected to be limited, with an increase of approximately RMB 50–100 per ton.

3. Long-term (quarterly): High-level support under supply-demand mismatch

In 2026, the industry is expected to face an overall supply-demand gap of approximately 2.15 million tons. Accelerated capacity expansion in anode materials will drive demand for medium- and high-sulfur calcined petroleum coke. However, attention should be paid to the pace of new capacity releases. If 3.675 million tons of new capacity are commissioned intensively in the second half of the year, there may be a risk of oversupply, potentially leading to phased price corrections. Overall, prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels.

IV. Operational Recommendations

1. Procurement side:

Rigid-demand users may replenish inventory according to normal schedules without rushing to stockpile. For high-spec products (V 350/450, low sulfur ≤ 0.5%), attention should be paid to regional inventory dynamics, with small-batch purchases to lock in supply when appropriate.

2. Sales side:

Maintain current quotations based on cost support. Closely monitor upstream petroleum coke price trends and downstream anode material operating rates. If demand recovers, consider timely and moderate price increases.

3. Key variables to monitor:

Focus on fluctuations in coking coal and petroleum coke prices, the pace of capacity expansion in anode materials, and changes in hot metal production in the steel industry. These factors will directly determine the future direction of calcined petroleum coke prices.

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