Actual situation of graphitization in Inner MongoliaⅠ------- investment opportunities brought by the shortage of graphitization of negative electrode

1. Actual situation of graphitization in Inner Mongolia

Power limit has a great impact on graphite chemical plant, especially in Ulan Qab. Graphitized production capacity in Inner Mongolia accounts for up to 70%, to view the related graphite products. and the production capacity of non-integrated enterprises is estimated to be 150,000 tons, of which 30,000 tons are affected and shut down; The Winter Olympics will affect the graphitization capacity within 500km of Beijing. It is estimated that 100,000 tons of graphitization capacity cannot be produced normally, with a total impact of 130,000 tons, accounting for 16% of the total graphitization capacity. The situation is the most severe in Q4 this year and Q1 next year. Shanshan is the only enterprise in Inner Mongolia whose graphitization capacity is not located in Ulan Qab.

The shortage of graphitization is expected to last until 24 years. Although the planned graphitization capacity is large, the energy assessment has not yet been implemented. No new graphitization capacity has been approved in Inner Mongolia, and the graphitization capacity of 500,000 tons in Sichuan has not been evaluated yet. The progress of production expansion may be delayed, and the graphitization shortage is expected to last longer than expected.

Graphitization is expected to continue to rise in price and will break through a record high this year. At present, the average price of graphitization is about 18,000 yuan, and it is expected to exceed 25,000 yuan within this year, with an increase of 20-30%. The cost does not change much, that is, the profit of graphitization capacity is expected to expand rapidly. The profit of graphitization capacity is 8,000 yuan per ton at 18,000 yuan, and 15,000 yuan per ton at 25,000 yuan, which is a double increase from the previous quarter.

Graphitization capacity is expected to usher in a revaluation, strongly optimistic about Shanshan shares. By the end of next year, Shanshan shares 194,000 tons, Pourtelai 150,000 tons, Zhongke Electric 80,000 tons (rights and interests), conservative estimates corresponding to the market value of Shanshan shares 97 billion, Pourtelai 75 billion, Zhongke Electric 40 billion.

Q: What is the proportion of graphitization capacity in Inner Mongolia in China (including under construction and planning)?

A: The distribution of graphite is in the place where the electricity price is relatively cheap, Inner Mongolia (negative electrode factory and independent graphite chemical plant) accounts for more than 70%.  Three areas of graphitization production: Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan; Inner Mongolia and old bases: Shanxi and Hunan (it is difficult to expand). Inner Mongolia is the largest.

Q: Due to power limitation, how about the 70% of graphitization capacity in Inner Mongolia under operation?

A: Power limit has a considerable impact on the graphite chemical plant. The graphitization provided by the main negative electrode plant has little impact due to the protection of the local government. The small graphite chemical plant (with an annual output of 10,000-20,000 tons) has a good relationship with the local government, which is partially affected. Because the power consumption of graphitization is intermittent, the production efficiency will be lost to a certain extent, and the capacity output will be affected to a certain extent, but from my personal experience, it is 20%.  

Q: You just mentioned these relatively small ones: 10,000 tons, 20,000 tons of production capacity. What is the total capacity?

A: With a total scale of nearly 150,000 tons, there are many small factories, including 20,000 tons in Jimei, almost 20,000 tons in Mengji, 10,000 tons in Hengsheng, 70,000-80,000 tons in Bolu Tiancheng, 70,000-80,000 tons in Ruisheng, and 10,000-20,000 tons in Snow.

Q: How much capacity is affected in this part?

A: 30,000 tons, corresponding to 20%. There are two reasons for power restriction in Inner Mongolia:

1. Maintenance period of wind power (From May to June).

2. Caused by environmental protection, and will be avoided in actual operation. In winter, due to the increase of wind power output, power limit will be alleviated.

Q: Graphitization is rising in price. Are there other factors this year?

A: In the area centered around Ulan Qab, the government has stopped approving new projects. If some old projects take special channels, they may expand capacity a little bit, but basically the capacity has not been expanded. Ulan Qab is within 500 kilometers of Beijing,  where the environmental protection requirements are strict. Half of Ulan Qab's factories are in this circle, and the environmental protection pressure behind these factories will be much greater than those outside this circle,to read more graphite news from us.