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【Petroleum Coke】Year-End Summary: Will 2025 Drive Growth or Face a Downturn?

【Petroleum Coke】Year-End Summary: Will 2025 Drive Growth or Face a Downturn?




【Petroleum Coke】Year-End Summary : Will 2025 Drive Growth or Face a Downturn?


Petroleum Coke Supply:

In 2025, the total supply of petroleum coke is expected to be 32.1595 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.33% year-on-year. China's production of petroleum coke, primarily medium- and low-sulfur coke, is expected to remain largely unchanged. Individual refineries, such as Wushi Petrochemical and Yunnan Petrochemical, may see a small increase in the proportion of low-sulfur and medium-sulfur coke. The use of calcined petroleum coke (cpc) is very extensive. As a product of petroleum coke, (cpc)  is mainly used as a pre baked anode and cathode for aluminum electrolysis, as well as carburants for metallurgical industry production. Due to the limited profitability of their main products, local refineries are expected to continue producing small quantities of low-vanadium petroleum coke while producing more high-vanadium coke. A 2 million tons per year delayed coking unit is expected to be commissioned in October 2024, which will significantly contribute to supply in 2025. However, factors such as the consumption of residual oil for low-sulfur marine fuels, consumption tax policies, and poor refining profits, along with delayed refinery maintenance and shutdowns, may result in a slight reduction in petroleum coke supply in 2025.

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Imports of Petroleum Coke:

Imports of petroleum coke in 2025 are expected to reach 13.2 million tons, a decrease of 3.19% from the previous year. The demand from downstream industries, particularly aluminum carbon products and anode materials, is expected to continue growing, and with limited inventory of medium- and low-sulfur sponge coke, there will be a need to replenish supplies. This, coupled with an expected rise in coke prices, is likely to support an increase in the import volume of medium- and low-sulfur sponge coke, which is expected to reach 9.63 million tons in 2025. However, the demand in southern China’s fuel market is expected to shrink significantly due to policy effects, leading to cautious procurement, and high-sulfur fuel coke imports are likely to continue decreasing. Additionally, demand from the flat glass sector is expected to be compressed, and imports of lump coke used in this market are anticipated to decline, with imports expected to decrease to around 3.6 million tons in 2025.

Downstream Demand:

Downstream demand is expected to increase by 6.72% in 2025. The aluminum carbon products industry still has new production capacity to be launched, which will continue to drive demand for petroleum coke. Similarly, the anode materials sector, with new and upcoming production lines, will continue to increase demand for petroleum coke. Demand for petroleum coke in graphite electrodes is expected to see a slight increase to around 530,000 tons. The demand for silicon carbide is expected to increase slightly, while demand from the metal silicon and glass industries is expected to decline. In the southern fuel market, high-sulfur fuel demand is expected to drop significantly due to policy influences.

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Price Outlook:

Overall, the price of petroleum coke in 2025 is expected to show divergence. Medium- and low-sulfur coke prices are expected to have room for upward movement by the end of the year, while high-vanadium petroleum coke prices are likely to fluctuate at lower levels. The main price range for petroleum coke is expected to be:

Low-sulfur coke (sulfur content around 0.5%) will range from 2,200 to 3,000 RMB per ton.

Medium-sulfur coke (sulfur content within 3.0%) will range from 1,400 to 2,200 RMB per ton.

High-sulfur coke (approximately 5.0% sulfur) will range from 800 to 1,100 RMB per ton.

The price of medium- and low-sulfur lump coke is expected to remain stable in the later part of the year, while high-sulfur lump coke is likely to see a slight decrease in price.


Feel free to contact us anytime for more information about the petroleum coke market. Our team is dedicated to providing you with in-depth insights and customized assistance based on your needs. Whether you have questions about product specifications, market trends, or pricing, we are here to help. 



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