Trend forecast in second half year for China's petroleum coke market

Domestic supply side: In the second half of the year, the international crude oil price is still difficult to get rid of the weak trend, concerns about the decline in oil demand caused by the economic recession continued to ferment, and the slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone and the United States has masked supply uncertainty, which is a key factor driving the recent decline in oil prices. Juxing graphite electrode for electric furnace has low sulfur & ash content, good thermal & electrical conductivity.

China's refined oil market will continue to maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment. In addition, although domestic gasoline demand is relatively strong, the weak demand for diesel is difficult to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the operating load of the coking unit will be limited in the second half of the year, and the domestic petroleum coke supply will be difficult to increase significantly.

Import supply side: Except for the relatively low price of long-term agreements, most external prices have been at a high level. Moreover, under the strong demand of India and Europe, the overall imported coke quantity will be difficult to reach a high level in the second half of the year, and the actual impact on domestic coke will be limited.

Demand side: As the Federal Reserve enters the cycle of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, the profit of electrolytic aluminum gradually decreases with the decline of electrolytic aluminum price. In the second half of the year, electrolytic aluminum enterprises may operate on the edge of profit and loss. However, with the implementation of the national 12 trillion stimulus plan, the domestic economy will be strongly supported, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity may still increase. Electrolytic aluminum production is expected to remain high in the second half of the year. The anode materials is still in production. With the new round of stimulation of new energy vehicles and digital products, the demand for petroleum coke remains good. 

Related products: From the supply side of the power coal market, the domestic coal output is still at a high level. Mainstream coal mines continue to focus on long-term cooperation to ensure resource supply, and coal market incremental space is relatively limited; In terms of demand, it is expected that the summer peak and macroeconomic will improve. Compared with the current situation, the demand will increase, forming a certain support for the market. Overall, the coal market will remain supported in the second half of 2022 and may see a boom in supply and demand, but in the meantime, we still need to pay attention to policy regulation.

In terms of supply and demand and related products, it is difficult for domestic petroleum coke production and import to increase significantly in the second half of the year. In terms of demand, electrolytic aluminum and anode materials production capacity is still at a high level, and the demand for petroleum coke raw materials remains stable. The supply and demand of related products and the power coal market are booming.

In the context of the game between domestic and foreign economic environment, the downstream industry's demand for petroleum coke remained good in the second half of the year. However, with the intensification of the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, if the peak of electrolytic aluminum is gradually reduced, it is difficult to maintain petroleum coke price at a high level, but with the support of strong supply and demand, it is unrealistic for petroleum coke to fall back to a lower price. It is suggested that all parties should put risk control in the first place, followed by profits. Follow us for more petroleum coke industry reports.