In the 1-3 quarters of 2022, China's calcined petroleum coke supply and demand analysis

From 2018 to 2022, the overall production capacity of calcined petroleum coke in China decreased first and then increased. From 2018 to 2020, the production capacity growth rate slowed down due to the slightly low trading volume of domestic carbon market. Petroleum coke is the main raw material for making graphite electrode used in steel making industry. Since 2021, the profit margin of domestic petroleum coke calcining enterprises in China has increased, and the new capacity of supporting calcination has been released. In 2022, part of the commercial production capacity was put into operation, and domestic petroleum coke calcination capacity reached about 35.8 million tons by the end of September.

From January to September 2022, the domestic production of calcined petroleum coke was about 16.43 million tons, of which 5.6542 million tons was commercial calcined petroleum coke, accounting for 34.41% of the total production. In the first three quarters of 2022, the production of calcined petroleum coke in China was significantly affected by the social environment. The release of calcined petroleum coke capacity was limited under the influence of the Winter Olympics, the Two Sessions and the epidemic situation in the first quarter. In the second and third quarters, the market transaction ran well, and the terminal market demand was stable. calcined petroleum coke output has increased significantly.

Low sulfur calcined petroleum coke: Due to the high price of terminal market and raw materials, the market share of graphite electrode and carbon increasing agent has decreased slightly; The market share of graphite cathode increased slightly.

Medium sulfur calcined petroleum coke: The new capacity of medium sulfur calcined petroleum coke has been released continuously, and the overall market share has been rising. The number of prebaked anodes and anode fillers has increased, and the prebaked electrode field has strict requirements for trace elements. Due to the growth of the domestic carbon market, domestic calcined petroleum coke export volume decreased from the first quarter to the third quarter, down year-on-year.

From the first quarter to the third quarter of 2022, the domestic low sulfur calcined petroleum coke price maintained a high level, and the overall price showed a volatile upward trend in the first half of the year. Since the third quarter, the calcined petroleum coke price has been adjusted due to the influence of raw material price, but the overall operation is still high.

From the monthly average price data, low sulfur calcined petroleum coke overall market price in the first three quarters of 2022 increased by 49-166% year on year, among which, calcined petroleum coke price in the second quarter reached the historical high in recent years due to the high price of raw materials. The annual high price of regular quality low sulfur calcined petroleum coke appeared in May, and the transaction price rose to 11100 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 166%. The annual high price of high-quality low sulfur calcined petroleum coke appeared in July, and the price continued to rise to 12800 yuan/ton.

In 2022, the market price of China's medium sulfur calcined petroleum coke rose first and then fell. Due to different trace elements, the downstream flow direction of medium sulfur calcined petroleum coke was different, and the market impact on the trading price trend of calcined petroleum coke demand side was significantly polarized.

Ordinary calcined petroleum coke: At present, China's anode material market is expanding rapidly, and the consumption of anode filling materials is also increasing, which well supports the shipment of ordinary calcined petroleum coke market. From January to September, calcined petroleum coke price continued to rise with the support of raw material costs. In the second quarter, the price rose to an annual high of 5600 yuan/ton, about 115% higher than 2021. Compared with the end of 2021, the price has increased by 2550 yuan/ton.

Index cargo calcined petroleum coke: Domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises have more strict requirements on trace elements, and the vanadium content in the eastern market is required to be controlled within 500ppm. Pre-baked anode enterprises have increased their purchases of target calcined petroleum coke, and raw petroleum coke price continues to rise, driving the price of index cargo medium sulfur calcined petroleum coke to 6500 yuan/ton in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 126%.

Market forecast:

At present, the domestic carbon market has an obvious bipolar trend of trading and investment, calcined petroleum coke enterprises trading well, the price is mainly stable.

Affected by the terminal EAF steelmaking market, the graphite electrode and carburetor market is weak, and the demand of enterprises to receive goods decreases. However, the market for graphite cathode is stable, the rigid demand in the terminal market was strong, and the consumption of enterprises has increased significantly. In addition, raw materials low sulfur coke price is still high, low sulphur calcined petroleum coke market prices downward space is limited.

With the expansion of the capacity of anode enterprises, the market demand for filler materials increases, and a large amount of ordinary medium and high sulfur calcined petroleum coke flows to the filler material market. Pre-baked anode enterprises have strict requirements for vanadium content. The limit for vanadium at the terminal aluminum plant is within 550ppm. The consumption of calcined petroleum coke for the target commodity has increased. At present, the domestic medium and high sulfur calcined petroleum coke has been successfully put into production. The enterprise produces according to the order, and the finished product price is not expected to drop significantly. Read more daily reports on the carbon market, welcome to follow us.