【Graphite Electrode】Post-National Day Steel Price Surge! Will Graphite Electrodes See a "Golden Autumn"?

Market Overview

As of October 8, 2024, prices for regular, high-power, and ultra-high-power graphite electrodes range between 13,200-21,900 yuan/ton, holding steady compared to the previous working day. The average market price for graphite electrodes is 15,063 yuan/ton, unchanged from the last report. Boosted by interest rate cuts and favorable macroeconomic policies, rebar prices have risen significantly, with commodities across the board seeing positive adjustments. Some graphite electrode suppliers have hinted at possible price increases post-holiday, although downstream acceptance remains uncertain. The market shows a trend of steady price growth.

Price Ranges

· Mainstream prices for graphite electrodes with diameters of 300-600mm:

o Regular Power: 13,200-15,200 yuan/ton

o High Power: 13,700-16,700 yuan/ton

o Ultra-High Power: 14,200-18,400 yuan/ton

o Ultra-High Power (700mm): 20,700-21,900 yuan/ton

Main Specifications Market Transaction Prices

Upstream Market

· Low-Sulfur Petroleum Coke: PetroChina's petroleum coke prices remain stable, with slight adjustments in certain regions. Jinxi Petrochemical raised prices by 20 yuan/ton on October 1, Dagang Petrochemical by 40 yuan/ton, and Dushanzi Petrochemical by 30 yuan/ton in response to strong aluminum demand. Guangdong Petrochemical in South China reduced its tender price by 40 yuan/ton.

· Low-Sulfur Calcined Petroleum Coke: Mainstream transaction prices are 3,100-3,200 yuan/ton for low-sulfur calcined petroleum coke made from Jinxi and Jinzhou petroleum coke, 3,500-3,850 yuan/ton for those made from Fushun petroleum coke, and 2,850-3,050 yuan/ton for those made from Liaohe and Binzhou Zhonghai petroleum coke.

· Needle Coke: The needle coke market in China remains stable, with normal shipments from producers. There have been no significant changes post-holiday, and downstream demand in October appears steady. Manufacturers are mainly fulfilling orders as needed, adopting a wait-and-see approach with no clear bullish news, leaving prices stable for now.

Demand

· Steel: With a series of favorable policies such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, domestic steel prices have been rising since last week, with a sharp increase of around 200 yuan/ton on Sunday. Electric arc furnace (EAF) steel mills have moved from widespread losses to profits of 100-200 yuan/ton, even surpassing integrated long-process steel mills in profitability.The market sentiment has been significantly boosted, and the steel market seems to have emerged from its bottom. In October, downstream demand for steel is expected to accelerate, driving an increase in crude steel production, particularly at EAF steel mills, which suffered significant production cuts in the third quarter. This will likely result in a noticeable increase in demand for ultra-high-power graphite electrodes.

Although rebar prices are rising and steel mills are regaining confidence, the actual demand for graphite electrodes remains limited, with mills focusing on just-in-time purchasing.

Market Outlook

The widespread rise in commodity prices has provided a boost to graphite electrode companies, and there may be cautious price adjustments in the near future. Combined with rising downstream finished steel prices, there could be some acceptance of higher graphite electrode prices. In the short term, the market is expected to continue its trend of stable to slightly higher prices.

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