【Calcined Petroleum Coke】Mainstream Downstream Demand Increases, CPC Market Trend Analysis

【Calcined Petroleum Coke】Mainstream Downstream Demand Increases, CPC Market Trend Analysis

At present, the weekly output of the domestic calcined petroleum coke (CPC) market remains around 160,000 tons, with the operating rate maintained at approximately 50%-60%. Market supply has slightly declined compared with the previous period. Currently, the raw material market remains weak overall, while downstream operating enthusiasm has increased slightly. However, due to sufficient inventory stocking by manufacturers in the earlier stage, purchasing enthusiasm remains relatively moderate, and CPC market prices continue to operate in a weak but stable trend.

I. CPC Market Stable Month-on-Month, Up 5%-75% Year-on-Year

Table 1 CPC Market Price Comparison Table

As of May 12, the price range of low-sulfur CPC was 6,300-7,300 RMB/ton; ordinary grade CPC prices were 2,800-3,200 RMB/ton; premium grade CPC prices were 4,200-4,400 RMB/ton; sulfur 3.0% screened material prices were 3,100-3,300 RMB/ton. CPC market prices showed slight month-on-month adjustments, while screened material prices increased. Due to weak raw material conditions, Shandong market prices mainly declined. On a year-on-year basis, market prices showed varying degrees of increase. The price increase in Northeast China and Shandong was relatively limited, while other regions experienced more significant increases.

II. Slight Improvement in Downstream Demand Supports CPC Market

The operating rate of the major downstream prebaked anode market reached 75.89%, up 1.3 percentage points month-on-month and down 0.61 percentage points year-on-year. The operating rate of the terminal downstream electrolytic aluminum market was around 96.5%, up 0.56 percentage points month-on-month and down 0.23 percentage points year-on-year. This month, some anode enterprises resumed production, leading to a slight increase in the operating rate of prebaked anode enterprises. The operating rate of terminal electrolytic aluminum also increased simultaneously, supporting prebaked anode output. The increase in anode production raised demand compared with last month, supporting petroleum coke prices.

The operating rate of the anode material market increased to 73.71%, up 1.78 percentage points month-on-month and up 12.07 percentage points year-on-year. Anode material manufacturers maintained sufficient downstream orders, and downstream procurement activity remained relatively active. Increased demand provided support for petroleum coke prices.

The operating rates of recarburizer and graphite electrode markets also increased slightly. This month, downstream steel mill operating rates rose slowly, increasing demand and benefiting upstream markets. The recarburizer market continued to be driven by the anode material market, with operating rates increasing. The operating rate this month reached 46.3%, up 2.4 percentage points month-on-month and up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year. The graphite electrode market also improved, with this month's operating rate reaching 30.32%, up 0.88 percentage points month-on-month but down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year.

III. Market Outlook

Overall, from May to July, domestic refinery maintenance shutdowns are expected to gradually decrease, while production resumptions and operating rates are expected to rise. Downstream purchasing sentiment is expected to remain stable. Raw material petroleum coke prices are expected to show a trend of rising first and then falling. Meanwhile, CPC market supply and downstream demand are both expected to improve slightly. Influenced by both cost and demand factors, CPC prices are expected to rise first and then decline. By the end of May, the average market price of low-sulfur CPC is expected to reach 6,775 RMB/ton, while the average market price of medium-sulfur CPC is expected to reach 3,650 RMB/ton.

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