【Petroleum Coke】Prices Rise Strongly!

 Market Overview

In the week from October 11 to October 17, 2024, petroleum coke prices saw a strong upward trend, driven by sustained enthusiasm from downstream procurement and favorable supply-side support. During the week, low-sulfur coke prices surged significantly, with mid-high sulfur coke following suit. Local refineries reported tight supplies of low-sulfur, low-vanadium petroleum coke. Coupled with rising prices for low-sulfur coke this week, this drove an increase in some coke prices. However, there remains pressure on the sales of high-sulfur conventional petroleum coke, as supply is relatively abundant amid downstream restocking of essential needs.

As of October 17, 2024, the average price in the petroleum coke market is 1,744 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from last week, marking an increase of 2.23%. In Shandong, the average price at local refineries is 1,422 yuan/ton, rising 33 yuan/ton week-on-week, a 2.38% increase.

This week, most refineries under Sinopec raised petroleum coke prices by 20-150 yuan/ton; refineries under PetroChina in Northeast China increased prices by 40-130 yuan/ton, while prices remained stable in the Northwest region. Refineries under CNOOC saw price increases of 250-350 yuan/ton. The performance of local refinery petroleum coke markets varied, with low-sulfur coke prices rising by 20-200 yuan/ton, while high-sulfur conventional coke prices decreased by 10-120 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast

Supply Side: There are currently no new coking facilities scheduled for maintenance next week, but a 2 million ton/year coking facility may have plans to come online, which is expected to increase domestic petroleum coke supply. In terms of imports, port shipment speeds remain stable, and it is anticipated that port inventories of petroleum coke will continue to decline next week.

Demand Side: The demand for petroleum coke from the downstream aluminum carbon market is expected to remain stable. The recovery of demand from negative electrode material companies has not met expectations, leading to a maintained status in petroleum coke procurement. The silicon carbide industry and southern fuel markets still show demand for high-sulfur conventional coke. However, demand from graphite electrode manufacturers remains insufficient, leading to a temporary stabilization in the market, which is expected to limit petroleum coke procurement.

In summary, while domestic petroleum coke supply may increase next week, downstream procurement primarily consists of essential needs, which may not provide substantial support to the overall market. Therefore, petroleum coke prices are expected to fluctuate steadily, with ongoing favorable conditions for low-sulfur coke, while prices for mid-high sulfur coke are likely to remain stable. Some high-sulfur conventional coke prices may still experience downward adjustments, with an overall fluctuation range of 10-100 yuan/ton.

Price Ranges: Low-sulfur coke (approximately 0.5% sulfur) is priced between 2,200-2,650 yuan/ton; medium-sulfur coke (up to 3.0% sulfur) is priced between 1,390-1,880 yuan/ton; and high-sulfur coke (approximately 4.5% conventional) is priced between 930-1,030 yuan/ton. Prices for conventional coke are expected to transition smoothly.

(Source: Baiinfo)

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