【Petroleum Coke】How Long Will the Price Surge Last?

As of mid-December 2024, the petroleum coke market remains strongly supported by favorable conditions, with prices rising sharply.

Market Overview:

• Low-sulfur coke: Tight supply from major refineries and active trading.

• Mid-to-high sulfur coke: Sales are steady and prices are rising, supported by declining port inventories and limited spot availability.

• Imported coke: Prices have increased in tandem with domestic coke.

As of December 12, the average petroleum coke price stood at RMB 1,987/ton, up RMB 76/ton (+3.98%) from last week. In Shandong, the average price reached RMB 1,735/ton, up RMB 78/ton (+4.72%).

Price Adjustments by Major Refiners:

• Sinopec: Increases of RMB 20-230/ton.

• PetroChina: Increases of RMB 50-350/ton.

• CNOOC: Increases of RMB 50-300/ton.

• Independent refiners: Prices mostly rose by RMB 20-340/ton, with robust trading activity.

Market Outlook:

• Supply: Refinery production is stable, with no major planned maintenance. Import activity is active, reducing inventories, especially for sponge coke.

• Demand:

• Aluminum carbon industry: Cost pressures persist; raw material procurement is cautious, but some calcined coke producers are holding firm on prices despite potential production cuts.

• Anode materials: Increasing downstream demand boosts trading activity and orders, offering market support.

• Graphite electrodes: Seasonal weak demand limits procurement, with operational rates below 30%.

• Silicon carbide and southern fuel markets: Stable demand for high-sulfur granulated coke.

Forecast for Next Week:

• Major refiners' prices are likely to remain stable, with low-sulfur coke seeing smaller price adjustments due to increased buyer caution.

• ndependent refineries may see slight increases of RMB 10-50/ton for certain grades.

Main Price Ranges:

1. Low-sulfur coke (S ≤ 0.5%): RMB 2,360-3,420/ton.

2. Mid-sulfur coke (S 2.5%, V ≤ 400): RMB 2,220-2,523/ton.

3. Mid-sulfur coke (S 3.0%, V > 400): RMB 1,450-1,950/ton.

4. High-sulfur, high-vanadium coke (S 4.5%): RMB 1,253-1,402/ton.

5. Granulated coke: Expected to remain stable.

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