【Petroleum Coke】Refineries Push Up Prices vs. Cautious Downstream Buyers: How Did the Market Perform This Week?

This week (December 20–26, 2024), the petroleum coke market showed mixed performance. Major refineries continued to raise prices slightly, with low-sulfur coke remaining tight in supply. Downstream purchasing was acceptable but cautious due to cost pressures, especially for high-priced orders, leading to a slower price increase for low-sulfur coke. Calcined Petroleum Coke Market Stabilizes After Price Increases. Meanwhile, local refineries faced pressure to clear inventory of mid-to-high-sulfur coke, resulting in price adjustments. Toward the end of the week, as prices for some grades declined, certain petroleum coke products from local refineries rebounded slightly after hitting bottom. Overall, prices showed mixed trends.

As of December 26, 2024:

1. The average market price of petroleum coke stood at 2,036 RMB/ton, down by 13 RMB/ton or 0.63% from last week.

2. In Shandong, the average market price was 1,707 RMB/ton, down by 97 RMB/ton or 5.38% compared to last week.

Price Adjustments by Refinery Groups:

• Sinopec: Prices increased by 20–60 RMB/ton at some refineries.

• PetroChina: Prices rose steadily by 50–280 RMB/ton.

• CNOOC: Prices saw a modest increase of 40–50 RMB/ton.

• Local Refineries: High-priced petroleum coke dropped by 20–330 RMB/ton, with some prices rebounding by 20–50 RMB/ton after falling to lower levels.

Market Outlook

Supply Side:

1. A new coking unit is expected to begin operation next week, adding an estimated daily production of 2,600 tons, potentially increasing domestic supply.

2. On the import side, port inventories are anticipated to continue declining due to rapid shipments and limited new arrivals.

Demand Side:

1. As the Lunar New Year approaches, carbon material enterprises are likely to restock inventories. However, limited profit margins may slightly constrain procurement enthusiasm.

2. Major anode material producers will maintain high operating rates, supporting petroleum coke demand. Mid- to small-sized enterprises are expected to operate at lower levels, leading to steady procurement.

3. The silicon carbide industry is likely to keep procurement stable, while the graphite electrode sector remains in its off-season, with low production levels and limited purchasing activity.

In summary, while downstream demand persists, constrained profit margins will likely lead to procurement based on immediate needs.

Forecast

• Low-sulfur coke prices are expected to rise modestly by 10–50 RMB/ton, with overall stabilization.

• Mid-to-high-sulfur coke prices are likely to stabilize, with fluctuations of 10–100 RMB/ton.

Key Price Ranges:

1. Low-sulfur coke (S ≤ 0.5%): 2,410–3,530 RMB/ton

2. Mid-sulfur coke (S ≈ 2.5%, V ≈ 400): 2,083–2,250 RMB/ton

3. High-sulfur, high-vanadium coke (S ≈ 4.5%): 1,103–1,460 RMB/ton

4. Pellet coke: Prices expected to remain stable.

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